MIKE URBAN参数敏感性分析

Sensitivity Analysis of Mike Urban Parameters

MIKE URBAN的降雨-径流模型在国内外流域城市内涝模拟中得到广泛应用。在模型中,水文水力参数较多,各参数的变化对输出结果的影响程度有较大差异。参数敏感性分析是模型构建与应用的重要环节,其目的在于定性或定量评估模型参数对模拟结果的影响,确定参数重要程度,识别敏感参数,以提高模型参数率定的效率。以贺州城区水系流域为例,利用扰动分析的方法对Mike Urban模型中的主要参数进行敏感性分析,并采用实测数据对比较敏感以及一般敏感参数进行验证。结果表明,对洪峰流量影响最大的参数是沿程损失系数;对峰现时间影响最大的参数是集水速度;对径流总量影响最大的参数是沿程损失系数。

Mike Urban′s rainfall runoff model has been widely used in the urban waterlogging in the world.In this model, there are many hydrologic and hydraulic parameters, and the change of parameters influence the output results is quite different. Parameter sensitivity analysis is an important part of model construction and application. It’s purposes are to evaluate the influence of model parameters on simulation results, to determine the importance of parameters and find the sensitivity parameters, to improve the efficiency of model parameter calibration. Taking Hezhou urban river basin as an example, analyses the sensitivity of the main parameters in Mike Urban′s rainfall runoff model by the perturbation method, and verify the relatively sensitive and general sensitive parameters by using the measured data. The results show that the hparameter has the greatest impact on the peak discharge, the u parameter has the greatest impact on the peak occurrence time, and the hparameter has the greatest impact on the total runoff is the along-way loss coefficient.