美日欧重构稀土供应链战略对中国稀土产业的影响

The impact of US,Japan and Europe's strategy of reconstructing rare earth supply chain on China's counterpart

梳理了美日欧重构稀土供应链的行动,分析了重构的动因和可能性,识别了重构对中国稀土产业发展的影响,分析表明:(1)目前,通过重构稀土供应链,美日欧已初步建成了独立于中国的稀土资源供应链体系;(2)重构的理论依据在于保持美日欧在稀土高端应用领域的比较优势,现实依据在于保障美日欧等国稀土产业供应安全,因此重构稀土供应链是美日欧的一项长期战略;(3)在重构稀土供应链的影响下,美日欧陆续恢复对稀土矿的开采,稀土供给格局发生较大变化并逐渐走向多元化,中国稀土资源供应优势地位正逐渐降低;(4)根据稀土永磁材料的产量和新能源单车所耗钕铁硼磁材2种方式,预测到2030年稀土需求将达60多万t,而供给仅为35万t,远不及稀土的需求量,且随着时间的推移,该缺口会越来越大。因此建议:(1)充分利用国内国外2种资源、2个市场,建立多元化稳定的稀土供应格局;加大稀土供应满足市场需求,稳定稀土原材料价格,提高资源掌控力和资源保障力;(2)延伸产业链,塑造国际竞争新优势,规划稀土重点应用领域,加大稀土高端材料及其应用领域的研发力度,实现技术突破,破解稀土产业“低端锁定”困局;(3)加强稀土产业链、政策链、创新链的深度融合,提升中国稀土全产业链竞争力。

This paper combs the actions for the United States, Japan and Europe to restructure their rare earth supply chain,analyzes the motivation and possibility of the reconstruction, and identifies its impact on the development of China’s rare earth industry. The following conclusions are drawn. 1) through reconstructing supply chain, the United States, Japan and Europe have initially established a rare earth resource supply chain system independent of China;2) the theoretical basis of the reconstruction, which is a long-term strategy, is to maintain their comparative advantages in high-end rare earth applications,and the practical basis is to ensure supply security for their industries;3) to reconstruct the rare earth supply chain, they continue to resume their rare earth mines, the pattern of rare earth supply being changed greatly and gradually becoming diversified and China’s dominant position in the supply being gradually decreased;4) according to the output of rare earth permanent magnet materials and the neodymium iron boron magnetic materials consumed by new energy vehicles, it is predicted that the demand for rare earth will reach more than 600000 t by 2030 while the supply will be only 350000 t, far less than the demand, and the gap will become larger and larger as time goes by. Moreover, corresponding suggestions are put forward for China to improve the competitiveness of its whole rare earth industry chain.