基于Benford定律澳门GDP影响因素问题研究

Research on the Factors Affecting Macao GDP Based on Benford’s Law

文章利用Benford定律检验1999-2018年影响澳门特区GDP因素的真实性和可靠性,使用回归模型及量化研究方法分析,得出影响澳门地区进出口总值、零售总值、外来投资总额和出生率等的因素与GDP同向增长显著相关的结论,即与Benford定律符合程度较好,数据受人为影响因素很小,经济数据是可以信赖的。

This paper uses Benford’s Law to test the authenticity and reliability of factors affecting the GDP of Macao Special Administrative Region from 1999 to 2018.By using regression model and quantitative research method,it is concluded that the influencing factors such as gross import and export production,gross retail sales,total foreign investment and birth rate in Macao significantly increase in the same direction as GDP,which is in agreement with Benford's law,and the data are only slightly affected by artificial factors,so the economic data can be trusted.