国际组织中的权力格局评价——以世界银行、亚开行和亚投行的比较为例

Power Structure Evaluation of International Organizations:A Comparative Analysis of the World Bank,the Asian Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank

对国际组织投票权分配公平与否、决策效率高低等的评价是学界广泛讨论的话题,但长期以来由于缺乏精确的衡量标准而难以展开系统研究。作者以投票权力理论为基础,从单个组织内(各成员个体)的权力测算层次推进到跨组织间(即组织整体)的比较评价层次,构建了包含权力分配的公平、平等、均衡以及组织决策效率的四项评价指标体系。基于超级计算机首次实现了对世界银行近200个成员、分配超200万票这样的“巨型”国际组织中各成员权力分布的精确计算,并比较世界银行、亚洲开发银行(亚开行)和亚洲基础设施投资银行(亚投行)在修改协定、增加股本及选举行长等核心议题决策中的权力格局后,作者发现世界银行在四项评价指标上的总体表现乏善可陈,且其权力分配的不平等性最为突出;亚开行在权力分配的公平性和均衡性上表现较差;亚投行在权力分配的公平性、均衡性和平等性上全面占优,这可能是亚投行对新成员颇具吸引力、成立短短三年多时间里即发展为仅次于世界银行的全球第二大多边开发银行的一个重要原因。但不能回避的是,决策效率偏低可能会成为亚投行未来发展的制约因素。

The evaluation of international organizations( such as the fairness of voting weight allocation and the decision-making efficiency) has been discussed extensively.However,due to the lack of objective and accurate measurement standards,it has been difficult to carry out systematic and in-depth study for a long time.Based on the voting power theory,this paper advances from the power calculation of individual members in one organization to the comparison and evaluation of power structures among different organizations,and constructs a system of evaluation indices including fairness,parity,balance and efficiency for the measurement of power structure in organizations.Furthermore,with the help of a supercomputer( Weiming-1),we for the first time measured exactly the voting power structure in the World Bank as a “giant”international organizations( with nearly 200 members and beyond 5,000,000 distributed votes),and compared the power structures of the World Bank,the Asian Development Bank( ADB) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank( AIIB) on a series of critical issues such as the amendment to the agreement,increase and reallocation of the capital stock,and election of the president,and found that:the World Bank’s overall performance on the four evaluation indices has almost no merit and the imparity of power distribution is the most noteworthy point;the ADB’s performance on the fairness and balance of power distribution is relatively bad;the AIIB has comprehensive advantages in the fairness,parity and balance of power distribution,and this may be the main reason why the AIIB is very attractive to new members and has become the second largest multilateral development bank,second to the World Bank,with no more than four years.However,it should be noted that the low decision-making efficiency may become a constraint factor in the future development of the AIIB.