新型网络化制裁的结构性限制

The Structural Limits on Networked Sanctions

21世纪以来,新型网络化制裁成为一种新的外交强制形式,即通过将全球经济网状结构中的非对称相互依赖关系转换为强制性权力,进而迫使结构中的其他行为体与特定对象断开连接。尽管新型网络化制裁具有令人“谈虎色变”的威力,然而经验事实表明其使用频率仍低于传统制裁,且在不同情况下其制定与实施存在显著差异。为厘清哪些因素限制了新型网络化制裁的使用,作者基于社会网络分析和复合依赖型政治经济理论提出了围绕网络演化速率的结构性解释,即结构的外部形态特征与其内在适应度决定了结构演化的速率,进而构成了网络化制裁的滞后成本和掣肘因素。结构既是网络化制裁的权力基础,又是其制约条件。通过对美国在货币金融网络和半导体技术网络中的网络化制裁进行案例分析,可发现主导国领导人为了避免在其任期内推动结构快速演化,在层次相对单一、形态呈多中心且功能性受制裁影响较大的经济结构中会谨慎并克制地使用网络化制裁;而在层次相对复杂、形态呈单中心且功能性受制裁影响较小的结构中则频繁并激烈地使用网络化制裁。

The 21st Century has witnessed the birth of networked sanctions,a new form of diplomatic coercion that forces other countries to disconnect from specific target by leveraging asymmetric interdependencies within the global economic networks.However,empirical evidence shows that networked sanctions are still used less frequently than traditional sanctions and vary significantly in their use in different contexts.To clarify what factors inhibit the use of networked sanctions,the author proposes a structural explanation based on social network analysis and theory of Political Economy of Complex Interdependence:the external network topologies and internal fitness of a given network determine its rate of structural evolution,which in turn constitutes the lagging cost and main constraint of networked sanctions.Therefore,the structure serves as both the power base and the constraint of networked sanctions.Through case studies of the U.S.networked sanctions in monetary and financial network as well as the network of semiconductor technology,this paper finds that the leaders of the dominant countries tend to use networked sanctions cautiously and restrainedly in single-layered,polycentric networks whose functions are highly affected by such sanctions,while frequently and aggressively in relatively complex,monocentric structures whose functions are less affected by such sanctions,so as to avoid driving rapid structural evolution during their tenure.