汇率波动、全球价值链嵌入与中国企业出口

Exchange Rate Fluctuations,GVC and the Export of Chinese Firms

本文通过构建一个包含汇率波动和中间品进口的理论模型,发现汇率波动显著抑制了企业出口,而参与全球价值链(GVC)有助于缓解汇率波动对企业出口的负向影响。通过分析2000—2013年中国工业企业数据库和中国海关统计数据库的匹配数据,本文证实了理论模型中的结论,发现GVC嵌入,一方面通过进口中间品价格抵消机制形成成本对冲效应;另一方面还通过产品多样化、市场多元化和质量提升有效降低了企业的产品价格弹性,由此缓解了汇率波动对出口的不利影响。未来应出台相关政策鼓励企业深度参与GVC,并助力企业实现在GVC位置上的攀升。企业应积极参与GVC分工以吸收其正向溢出效应,及时掌握汇率和市场的变化,适当调整出口策略,同时加大研发投入,提升产品的科技含量,降低产品价格弹性。

The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that China should adhere to the promotion of high-standard opening up and accelerate its transformation into a trader of quality.Among many factors affecting trade development,exchange rate fluctuations are direct,violent and uncontrollable,which have become the core issue concerned by governments and firms.At the same time,China’s deep embedment in the global value chain(GVC)has become a very important feature.The intermediate products included in GVC repeatedly cross the national border and the changes in the price elasticity of export products would offset the trade effect of exchange rate fluctuations and play a stabilizing role in trade development.Chinese firms participating in GVC may mitigate the inhibitory effect of exchange rate fluctuations on trade development through multiple channels,which would provide coping strategies and solutions for solving the problems caused by exchange rate fluctuations to trade development from the theoretical and practical levels.In this paper,we firstly build a theoretical model including exchange rate fluctuations and intermediate imports,and find the following results.On the one hand,exchange rate fluctuations significantly inhibit firms’exports.On the other hand,participation in GVC helps to mitigate the negative impact of exchange rate fluctuations on firms’exports.Its mechanism is divided into the following channels.GVC makes firms use a large number of imported intermediates in the production process,and the price of imported intermediates is inversely related to the exchange rate,thus forming a cost hedging effect.GVC effectively reduces the price elasticity of firms’products through product diversification,market diversification and quality improvement,thereby mitigating the adverse impact of exchange rate fluctuations on exports.Secondly,by analyzing the matching data of China Industry Business Performance Database and China Customs Statistics Database from 2000 to 2013,this paper confirms the conclusions in the theoretical model,and verifies the two channels of the cost hedging effect and the price elasticity mechanism.Further analysis shows that there is a supply chain effect in the process of Chinese firms participating in GVC.That is to say,exchange rate fluctuations have a greater negative impact on upstream firms’exports,but on the whole,participation in GVC can offset the negative effect of exchange rate fluctuations.At the same time,the exchange rate reform in 2005 and the financial crisis in 2007 did not significantly change the impact of exchange rate fluctuations and GVC on firms’exports.On the analysis above,this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions.At the macro level,China needs to introduce relevant policies in the future to encourage firms to deeply participate in GVC,and help firms climb upward in GVC.At the micro level,firms should actively participate in GVC division of labor to absorb its positive spillover effect,timely grasp the changes in the exchange rate and the market,appropriately adjust export strategies,increase R&D investment,improve the scientific and technological content of products,and reduce the price elasticity of products.Finally,this paper has the following innovations.There have been studies on the impact of GVC embedding on firms’participation in trade activities from multiple perspectives,but few studies have been conducted from the perspective of restraining exchange rate fluctuations.GVC has the potential to offset the adverse effects of exchange rate fluctuations,which has important practical and theoretical significance for China’s foreign trade stability and quality improvement.Existing studies have tested the possible methods to deal with exchange rate fluctuations,but due to the availability of data,they are all based on the national or industrial level,and have not been investigated from the firm level.Existing literature lacks the corresponding mechanism analysis,but this paper better explains the mechanism between exchange rate fluctuations,GVC embedding and exports by constructing a theoretical model.