产能利用率具有阈值和评判价值吗--“产能过剩”误区的再考察

Does Capacity Utilization Rate Have a Threshold Value and Assessment Value?Reconsidering the“Overcapacity”Misunderstanding

产能问题仍然存在很多似是而非的论断。我们曾对“产能过剩”提出质疑,但对产能利用率的预警及评判价值未做定论。当前,国内仍然经常提及“产能过剩”命题并有着去产能等措施,时常将82%作为国际标准或者其他数值作为评判标准。为了探讨产能利用率是否具有稳定的“国际标准”,并是否真实存在产能利用率“阈值”及这种评价来源何在,本文选取美国和中国的行业产能利用率等数据,对产能利用率及其价值进行了经验分析。研究发现,第一,产能利用率并没有所谓的“国际标准”,其指标不能用以评判“产能过剩”;第二,通胀-产能利用率阈值为82%的命题也不能被接受,不同行业的阈值差异较大;第三,非线性模型证实,通胀受到产能利用率的影响程度和方向存在区间差异,产能利用率很难作为通货膨胀的预警指标或指示器。因而,产能利用率指标在宏观层面可能并没有评判意义,所谓“产能过剩”命题难以成立,各种产能措施需要考量,特别需要避免“作茧自缚”的情形。

Puzzles on capacity remain.We have questioned“excess capacity,”but we have no final conclusion on the actual value of capacity utilization rate.China still often puts forward the proposition of“overcapacity,”issues policies on reducing overcapacity,and takes 82%or other values as the evaluation criterion.In order to find out whether the capacity utilization rate has stable“international standards,” where the widely recognized“threshold”of capacity utilization rate comes from and whether it really exists,this paper selects the industrial capacity utilization rate and other data of China and the United States to conduct standardized and in-depth empirical analysis of capacity utilization rate.The results show that,firstly,there is no so-called international standard for capacity utilization rate,and it cannot be used to determine“excess capacity.”Secondly,the stable-inflation rate of capacity utilization was not 82%any more,and the threshold value varies from industry to industry.Thirdly,the nonlinear model confirms that there are range differences in the extent and direction of the impact of the capacity utilization rate on inflation,and the capacity utilization rate cannot be a reliable indicator of inflationary pressures.Therefore,the capacity utilization rate index may not be meaningful at the macro level,the so-called“overcapacity” proposition is difficult to establish,various capacity policies need to be reconsidered,and it is even more necessary to avoid being caught in our own trap.