投入产出网络视角下中美产业内循环比较研究

A Comparative Study of Domestic Industrial Circulation between China and the United States from the Perspective of Input-Output Network

本文综合运用欧盟和亚洲开发银行编制的世界投入产出表,基于网络分析方法,动态比较中美两国的产业内循环。研究发现:2000—2019年中国产业内循环总量和比例均有所提高,美国的总量变化不明显,比例有一定程度的下降,制造业回流不显著;从投入产出网络视角来看,美国的内部产业关联相对均衡,产业关联分布变化不大,中国的内部关联相对不均衡,产业关联逐渐增强;中国呈现制造业和制造业、服务业和服务业组群的现象,而美国的产业社群较为均匀;就核心产业选取角度,中国以建筑业为首、制造业为主,美国以公共服务业为首、服务业为主;根据最强路径选取产业链,中国以建筑业为首选取的产业链多为制造业,包括部分服务业,美国以公共服务业为首选取的产业链几乎均为服务业。

Based on the network analysis method, this paper comprehensively uses the world input-output tables compiled by the European Union and the Asian Development Bank to dynamically compare the domestic industrial circulation between China and the United States. The results show that the total volume and proportion of domestic circulation in China have increased, while the total volume in the United States has not changed significantly, the proportion has decreased to some extent, and the performance of manufacturing reshoring is not obvious. From the perspective of the input-output network,the US has relatively balanced domestic industrial linkages, and the distribution of industrial linkages has not changed much, while China’s domestic linkages are relatively unbalanced and industrial linkages have gradually increased. The industrial community in China presents the phenomenon of clustering in the same industry such as manufacturing and services, while the industrial community in the US is relatively even. In terms of core sectors, China is led by construction and manufacturing industries, while the US is dominated by public service industries and service industries. According to the strongest industrial chain selection,China’s selected industrial chains focus on manufacturing led by construction, including some services, while US’s is predominantly services led by public services.