新冠肺炎疫情背景下有限医疗物资在民众和医院之间的优化配置研究

Optimal Allocation of Limited Medical Supplies between People and Hospitals under the COVID-19

2020年新冠肺炎疫情暴发初期,医疗物资的优化配置是疫情防控的关键问题之一。基于疫情蔓延程度、医疗资源禀赋和救治能力,一个国家或地区采取怎样的分配策略才能有效减少疫情的传播?本文针对这一问题进行理论探讨,在标准SIS传染病动力学模型和有限资源约束下,讨论如何最小化感染人数以实现医疗物资在民众和医院之间的最优配置,给出不同先决条件下的配置最优解,并以模拟的方式验证计算结果的合理性及感染比例的长期趋势。针对疫情迅速蔓延的情形,本文讨论如何增加医疗物资和医护人员的数量来控制感染率水平。本文提出的模型探讨了新冠肺炎疫情期间各个国家和地区的物资分配方式,为重大新发传染病的应对提供理论依据。

In the early stage of COVID-19 outbreak in 2020, the optimal allocation of medical supplies was a key issue for disease control. Based on the spread of the epidemic, the endowment of medical resources, and the ability of treatment, what kind of allocation strategy should a country or region adopt to reduce the spread of the epidemic? To discusses this issue theoretically, under the standard SIS model and limited resources constraint, we investigate the optimal allocation of medical supplies between people and hospitals that minimizes the number of infected people. We give the optimal solution under different prerequisites and verify the correctness of solutions and the long-term trend of infection rate through simulation data. We also expand the model to handle rapidly spreading outbreaks by increasing the number of medical supplies or ambulance personnel. This paper reflects on the medical supply allocation ways in different countries and regions during the epidemic and provides a theoretical analysis for the response to major emerging infectious diseases.