政府债务的货币效应——基于新市场财政学“财政-央行双主体”货币调控理论

The Monetary Effect of Government Debt:Based on the Monetary Regulation Theory with“Dual-subject of Fiscal Department and Central Bank”of Neo-Public Finance

文章基于新市场财政学“财政-央行双主体”货币调控理论,探讨了政府债务的货币效应与作用渠道。在理论研究中,文章使用宏观账户分析法,探讨了地方政府、企业举债融资全流程中的货币流通情况,发现在国库集中收付制度下,只有地方政府债务存在货币效应。当地方政府发行债券筹资时,资金从货币流通体系流向国库单一账户体系,导致货币流通体系内资金减少,商业银行的信贷规模随之减少;还本付息时,资金流向和影响效果反之。而在企业债券的全流程中,资金始终在货币流通体系内流转,不具有货币效应。在实证研究中,文章基于中介效应模型和信息流因果判定方法,证实地方政府债券是引起信贷规模变动的原因之一,而企业债券对于信贷规模无显著影响。最终的数据测度显示,2015-2020年间,货币市场中最高有25.31%的信贷规模是受到地方政府债券全流程的影响。文章的研究发现进一步证实了政府财政部门是“财政-央行双主体”货币调控理论的重要主体,丰富了“双主体”理论的内涵与外延,为认识现代财政金融关系提供了新的思考。

The Chinese government attaches great importance to the coordination of fiscal policy and monetary policy.The academia has actively explored this topic,but existing researches ignore the monetary effect of public finance,which makes the research conclusions and the actual financial practice cannot be effectively matched.In the research on the relationship between finance and money,Li et al.(2020)firstly formally elaborates the monetary regulation theory with“dual-subject of fiscal department and central bank”based on the framework of Neo-public Finance.They find the monetary effect of the government’s fiscal activities:Under the treasury centralized collection and payment system,the fiscal department can affect the scale of currency circulation through fiscal revenue and expenditure activities and treasury cash management activities.Despite this,different financial activities may have different impacts and action channels.Therefore,based on the monetary regulation theory with“dual-subject”,this paper studies the monetary effect,impact mechanism and impact effect of government debt in China.There are five findings in this paper:First,in the whole process of corporate bonds,funds are always circulated within the currency circulation system and do not have the monetary effect.Second,the issuance of local government bonds will make money flow from the currency circulation system to the treasury single account system,which will reduce the public deposits of commercial banks and reduce the scale of social credit.The capital flow direction and impact effect of government bond cashing and interest payment are on the contrary.Third,with the improvement of China’s treasury centralized collection and payment system,the impact of the issuance and payment scale of local government bonds on the credit scale of commercial banks has become more significant and intense.Fourth,based on the information flow theory,the change in the scale of local government bonds in Guizhou Province and other six provinces is the reason for the change in the credit scale of commercial banks.Fifth,the proportion of credit scale in the money market which is affected by the whole process of local government bonds is up to 25.31%between 2015 and 2020.This paper puts forward the following suggestions:First,the government should deepen the coordination mechanism between fiscal policy and monetary policy.Second,the government should broaden the channels and ways of using local government bonds.Third,the government should attach importance to the monetary regulation theory with“dual-subject of fiscal department and central bank”.