新型消费如何促进产业结构升级——基于信息消费试点的准自然实验

How have New Types of Consumption Promoted Industrial Structural Upgrading:Based on Quasi-Natural Experiment of Information Consumption Pilots

作为信息技术与传统消费深度融合形成的一种新型消费,信息消费近年来发展强劲,为我国后疫情时代经济的持续性复苏和产业结构转型升级提供了强大动力。基于信息消费试点这一准自然实验,利用我国278个地级市2005—2018年的面板数据,采用多期双重差分法评估信息消费试点对产业结构升级的影响。研究发现:(1)总体来看,信息消费试点能显著提升城市产业结构合理化和高级化水平,助推产业结构升级,且该结论经过一系列稳健性检验后依然有效;(2)异质性检验表明,信息消费试点能促进中、西部地区的产业结构高级化,但在东部地区效应不明显,能促进中、东部地区的产业结构合理化,但在西部地区产生了抑制作用;(3)机制分析表明,信息消费试点主要是通过提升城市信息化水平、拉动居民消费、推动技术创新等路径影响产业结构升级。因而在当下以新动能推动新发展的战略机遇期,应继续释放信息消费潜力,促进信息消费扩容提质,以推动产业升级、产品升级与消费升级协同共进。

As an important part of the new types of consumption, information consumption provides a strong impetus for the sustained economic recovery and the industrial structure upgrading in the post-epidemic era. Based on a quasi-natural experiment of information consumption pilots in China, this study uses panel data from 278 prefecture-level cities from 2005 to 2018 to explore the impact of information consumption pilots on the upgrading of industrial structure through a difference-in-differences(DID) model. The results show that the information consumption pilots can significantly promote the rationalization and advancement of urban industrial structure, and the findings are still valid after a whole string of robustness tests. Additionally, spatial heterogeneity analyses show that the policy has a driving effect on the advancement of industrial structure in the central and western regions of China, but the effect is not significant in the eastern region;the policy can promote the rationalization of the industrial structure in the central and eastern regions, but produce an inhibitory effect in the western region. An examination of the underlying mechanisms shows that promotion in urban informatization level, resident consumption, and technological innovation associated with the information consumption pilots may play a role in industrial upgrading. Therefore, the Chinese government should expand the implementation scope of information consumption pilots to unleash consumption potential, to promote the coordinated development of industrial upgrading, product upgrading and consumption upgrading.