基于机队视角的中国民航运输低碳发展情景分析

Scenario Analysis of Low-carbon Transition of China’s Civil Aviation Transport Based on Perspective of Airline Fleet

为实现2060年民航运输近零排放的目标,通过建立机队视角下的中国民航运输碳排放分析模型,对民航运输低碳转型成本最低路径开展了情景模拟和分析。结果表明:翻新技术、运行管理技术、替代燃料技术和自身能效进步技术综合运用下(综合减排情景)转型成本最低,其CO减排成本与仅采用生物质燃料的情景(基准情景)相比减少10.9%,若出现颠覆性技术将使成本进一步下降7.1%;为实现民航运输的低碳发展,短期内需发挥生物质燃料的即用性优势,中长期依靠氢能飞机并与高铁协同配合,同时强化创新性、颠覆性低碳技术研发与应用,助力民航运输深度脱碳。

In order to achieve the goal of near-zero emissions of civil aviation transportation by 2060,the cost optimal low-carbon transition pathway of civil aviation was simulated and analysed by establishing the China’s civil aviation carbon emission analysis model from the perspective of aircraft fleet.Results show that the transition cost of civil aviation is the lowest under the comprehensive application of refurbishment technology,operation management technology,alternative fuel and energy efficiency improvement technology(comprehensive emission reduction scenario),which is 10.9%lower than the scenario of only using biofuel(benchmark scenario).Costs fall a further 7.1%if disruptive technologies are employed.The low-carbon development of civil aviation needs to take advantage of the ready-to-use biofuel in the short term,rely on hydrogen-powered aircraft in the medium and long term synergy cooperation with high-speed rail.In addition,the research and application of innovative and disruptive low-carbon technologies need to be strengthened.