秦岭山地碳中和空间服务范围及其模拟预测

Spatial service scope and simulation prediction of carbon neutralization in Qinling mountains

在当前碳中和背景下,秦岭山地碳中和的量化及其空间服务范围的测算对于碳中和合理规划和快速实现具有重要意义。采用IUEMS(Intelligent Urban Ecosystem Management System)系统对秦岭山地的固碳量进行核算,利用DMSP/OLS(Defense Meteorological Satellite Program/Operational Linescan System)和NPP-VIIRS(Net Primary Productivity-Visible infrared Imaging Radiometer)夜间灯光数据和各地市的能源消耗数据通过模型拟合对秦岭山地碳排放量进行空间量化,基于固碳量和碳排放量得到秦岭山地空间碳中和量。利用PLUS(Patch-generating Land Use Simulation Model)模型模拟了2030和2050年的碳中和空间分布,结合常见气体扩散系数计算得到常温常压下秦岭山地碳中和对周边区域的服务范围。结果表明:2000—2020年秦岭山地固碳量呈现上升的趋势,大部分区域不同时间尺度上的固碳速率呈正向趋势,空间上秦岭山地中西部区域固碳量整体较大;对秦岭固碳量影响较大的地形特征为海拔1200m左右、斜坡、半阳坡和半阴坡;研究区内碳排放量空间上整体较低,碳排放低值区面积占到了秦岭总面积的90%,碳排放较大区域主要位于秦岭北坡的城区区域,时间上碳排放量最大值为先增加后减少的变化趋势;2000—2050年秦岭山地碳汇服务范围为174—262.63km,服务范围在空间上呈逐渐扩大趋势,2030年后其扩大程度将略有减少。

Under the current background of carbon neutralization, the quantification of carbon neutralization in Qinling mountains and the calculation of its spatial service scope are of great significance for rational planning and rapid realization of carbon neutralization. Intelligent Urban Ecosystem Management System(IUEMS) was used to calculate the amount of carbon sequestration in the Qinling mountains. The spatial quantification of carbon emissions in the Qinling mountains was carried out by fitting the model with the data of night light and energy consumption of various cities. Based on carbon sequestration and carbon emissions, the spatial carbon neutralization of Qinling mountains was obtained. PLUS(The patch-generating Land Use Simulation Model) was used to simulate the spatial distribution of carbon sequestration in 2030 and 2050. Combined with the diffusion coefficients of common gases, the service scope of carbon neutralization for surrounding regions in Qinling mountains was obtained. The results showed that the carbon sequestration in the Qinling mountains showed an upward trend from 2000 to 2020, and the carbon sequestration rate in most regions showed a positive trend at different time scales. The carbon sequestration in the central and western regions of the Qinling mountains was larger in space. The topographic features that have great influence on the carbon sequestration in the Qinling mountains were slope, half sunny slope and half shady slope with an altitude of about 1200 m. In the study area, the overall spatial carbon emission was low, and the area with low carbon emission value accounted for 90% of the total area of the Qinling mountains. The area with large carbon emission was mainly located in the urban area of the northern slope of the Qinling mountains. In terms of time, the maximum carbon emission increased first and then decreased. From 2000 to 2050, the service range of carbon sink in Qinling mountains is 174—262.63 km, and the service range is gradually expanding in space, and the expansion degree will decrease slightly after 2030.