福建省碳超载时空格局演化及弱化路径

Patterns and weakening paths of the spatio-temporal evolution of regional carbon overload in Fujian Province

基于“定量测度-时空判别-因素剖析”视角,运用倾向值分析法、探索性空间数据分析法与地理加权回归模型,揭示2000—2015年福建省市域、县域碳超载时空演变格局与变动模式,判识碳超载空间集聚态势,解析碳超载的关键驱动因素及其空间差异性。结果表明:研究期内福建省碳超载总量持续增长,总体呈“东南高-西北低”不均衡发展格局,呈现局部集聚性;碳超载县区沿海岸线自南向北逐渐增加,H-H集聚的县区分布于福州市、厦门市、泉州市和漳州市,集聚态势有减弱趋势;内陆地区大部分县区尚保持碳可载状态,L-L集聚的县区主要分布于南平市、三明市、龙岩市。对比县域和市域两个尺度的研究结果,可发现区域碳超载变化类型呈现较大的尺度差异性,如宁德市和三明市总体表现为增大型,但其辖域内部分县区表现为缓慢减小型。通过因素解析发现,人口规模增长、工业化和城镇化发展是福建省县域碳超载加剧的主要驱动因素。

Based on the perspective of quantitative evaluation, spatio-temporal identification, and driving factors analysis, this paper explored the patterns and changing types of the spatio-temporal evolution of regional carbon overload in the cities and counties of Fujian Province during 2000—2015. And we analyzed the spatial agglomeration and the key driver factors of regional carbon overload. Slope Analysis, Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis and Geographically Weighted Regression Model were adopted in the above research. The results show that the total amount of carbon overload in Fujian Province continued to increase from the south to the north along the coast from 2000 to 2015. It showed an unbalanced development pattern of “high carbon-overload in the southeast and low carbon-overload in the northwest” in Fujian Province. Concretely, the most counties with H-H aggregation were distributed in Fuzhou City, Xiamen City, Quanzhou City and Zhangzhou City, and their agglomeration were decreasing, especially in the counties of Fuzhou City. Most inland counties had a carrying capacity of carbon load. And the counties with L-L aggregation were mainly round up in Nanping City, Sanming City and Longyan City. Besides, it performed a significant difference between the types of carbon-load change at the municipal scale and the county scale. E.g., the carbon overload in Ningde City and Sanming City showed a change to be exacerbating as a whole, while there existed some counties with slow decreasing carbon-overload in the two cities. In addition, it found that population growth, industrialization, and urbanization were the main driving factors of regional carbon overload in Fujian Province.