基于GIS和Maxent模型的白唇鹿(Cervus albirostris)潜在适宜生境及保护GAP分析

Potential suitable habitat and protection gap analysis of white-lipped deer(Cervus albirostris) based on GIS and Maxent model

在全球气候变暖及人为干扰等因素影响下,许多野生动物因生境退化和丧失而濒临灭绝。为了探讨未来全球气候变暖背景下白唇鹿适宜生境的分布格局及保护状况,基于491个白唇鹿分布位点,利用GIS和Maxent模型模拟预测了SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5共享社会经济路径下全球气候变化对白唇鹿在2040年(2021-2040)和2100年(2081-2100)潜在适宜生境分布并对其保护空缺进行了评价,并利用受试者曲线和刀切法对模型模拟结果有效性进行评价。结果表明在两种共享社会经济路径下,从2021到2100年期间:(1)影响白唇鹿潜在适宜生境分布的关键环境因子是植被类型、最暖季均温和最热月最高温和海拔;(2)白唇鹿潜在适宜生境面积总体呈下降趋势,分布格局变化明显的区域主要集中在西藏南部、三江并流区以及青海、四川和甘肃交界带;(3)白唇鹿潜在适宜生境平均海拔上升,质心向高纬度移动;(4)在SSP1-2.6共享社会经济路径下,白唇鹿2040年和2100年位于中国生态屏障区、国家级和地方级自然保护区之内的潜在适宜生境的平均最高和最低比例分别为76.11%和26.92%,而在SSP5-8.5共享社会经济路径下的分别是69.41%和69.34%。本研究揭示了全球气候变暖主要通过对青藏高原暖季的增温效应影响白唇鹿潜在适宜生境,最高达到73.08%的潜在适宜生境还处于保护空缺区域。全球经济发展尽早进入可持续发展模式和对保护空缺区域进行保护地规划与建设将对未来生物多样性保护具有重要意义。

Habitat degradation,which was resulted from global warming and human disturbance,has put the survival and distribution of wild mammals in jeopardy.In order to provide a theoretical basis for the future conservation of white-lipped deer(Cervus albirostris),an endemic deer to Qinghai-Tibet deer,this paper tries to explore and simulate the dominant climatic and ecological factors that affect distribution pattern and area of the potential suitable habitat for white-lipped deer.Based on 491 geographical distribution samples,among which 372 samples were collected from literature and 119 samples were collected during our field investigation,within the distribution range of white-lipped deer,the maximum entropy model(Maxent)to simulate the geographical distribution of potential suitable habitat for white-lipped deer in 2040(2021-2040)and 2100(2081-2100)under two shared socio-economic pathways(SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5).The receiver operating characteristic curve,Jackknife test and the precent contrition of the environmental factors are carried out to analyze to the factors that limiting the distribution pattern and area of potential suitable habitat of white-lipped deer.The model results showed that there were environmental factors,including vegetation type,the mean temperature of the warmest quarter,the highest temperature in warmest quarter and elevation,were the most important factors that affect the distribution pattern and area of potential suitable habitat for white-lipped deer.The area of potential suitable habitat for white-lipped deer has decreased under the both two shared socio-economic pathways from 2021 to 2100,with the south of Tibet,Three Parallel Rivers Region and the border zone of Qinghai,Sichuan and Gansu being the most affected.Furthermore,the average elevation of potentially suitable habitat for white-lipped deer increased,and its centroid shifted to high latitude.The highest and the lowest proportions of the potential suitable habitat were 76.11%and 26.92%under SSP1-2.6,while it was 93.17-98.51%under SSP5-8.5,which distributed in the protection gap analysis(GAP)ranges of the national barrier zone,national nature reserve,and non-national nature reserve of China.Our findings revealed that global warming primarily affected the potential suitable habitat of white-lipped deer by causing warming on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during the warm season,and that more than 73.80%of the potential suitable habitat was still outside of the current protected area.The global social economic development model,which should achieve sustainable development status as soon as possible,as well as GAP conservation planning,should be extremely beneficial to future biodiversity conservation.