“双碳”目标下我国粮食安全评价指标体系研究

Research of China′s Food Security Evaluation Index System under"Dual Carbon"Target

文章采用主客观相结合的AHP-熵权法对我国粮食安全状态进行评估。将“双碳”目标纳入粮食安全的评价体系中,构建包含“双碳”、生产保障、结构效益、技术投入和可持续发展五个维度的粮食安全指标体系,围绕“减排—生产—消费”内在逻辑,评估“十三五”我国粮食安全情况。研究表明:“十三五”我国粮食安全整体协调能力呈上升趋势;“双碳”目标与环保情况先降后升、消费稳定、结余略增;资金和技术投入有力支撑了我国粮食安全;贸易情况呈现W型波动,存在较大的不确定性。

In this pape,AHP-entropy weight method is used to evaluate the state of food security in China.The"dual carbon"target will be incorporated into the evaluation system of food security,and a food security index system including"dual carbon",production security,structural benefit,technological input and sustainable development was constructed.Centering on the internal logic of"emission reduction-production-consumption",China's food security situation during the"13th Five-Year Plan"was evaluated.The results showed that during the"13th Five-Year Plan"period,the overall coordination capacity of China's food security showed a steady upward trend.The"dual carbon"target and environmental protection were firstly decreased then increased,consumption was stable,the surplus was slightly increased,and financial and technological input has strongly supported China's food security.Trade development appeared W-shaped fluctuation,there was a high degree of uncertainty.