“一带一路”视角下金融改革对中国林产品出口的影响分析

Analysis of the impact of financial reform on China′s forest product exports from the perspective of the Belt and Road

基于2005-2019年间中国林产品出口贸易数据,分析中国对“一带一路”沿线国家林产品出口的贸易特征,然后选取中国金融改革中与贸易相关的汇率改革、利率改革和金融市场自由化改革作为研究对象,运用随机前沿引力模型实证检验金融改革对中国林产品出口“一带一路”沿线国家的影响并测算出口效率。研究发现:与其他国家相比,中国实行上调汇率、提高货币自由度和金融自由度对林产品出口具有显著正向影响,但下调基准贷款利率,对出口额的影响并不显著;提高中国的森林资源禀赋、中国国内GDP、两国班轮运输双边连通性指数,与中国签订自由贸易协议,减少海关程序负担均对林产品出口具有显著正向影响。基于以上结论提出中国要提升金融改革程度来带动出口贸易,加快推动自由贸易区建设,积极拓展对非洲、东欧和东南亚等区域“一带一路”沿线国家的林产品出口等建议。

Based on the export trade data of China′s forest products from 2005 to 2019,this paper analyzes the trade characteristics of China′s forest product exports to the countries along the Belt and Road,and then selects the trade-related exchange rate reform,interest rate reform and financial market liberalization reform in China′s financial reform as the research object,uses the stochastic frontier gravity model to empirically test the impact of financial reform on China′s forest product exports to the countries along the Belt and Road and measures the export efficiency.The research finds that,compared with other countries,China′s implementation of raising the exchange rate,increasing the degree of monetary freedom and financial freedom has a significant positive impact on the export of forest products,but the reduction of the benchmark loan interest rate has no significant impact on the export volume;improving China′s forest resource endowment,China′s domestic GDP,the bilateral connectivity index of liner transport between the two countries,signing a free trade agreement with China,and reducing the burden of customs procedures have a significant positive impact on forest product exports.Based on the above conclusions,it is proposed that China should improve the degree of financial reform to drive export trade,accelerate the construction of free trade areas,and actively expand the export of forest products to the countries along the Belt and Road in Africa,Eastern Europe,Southeast Asia and other regions.