气候变化下考氏白盾蚧的潜在分布区预测

Prediction of the potential distribution areas of Pseudaulacaspis cockerelli (Hemiptera:Diaspididae) under climate change

【目的】评估园林植物害虫考氏白盾蚧Pseudaulacaspis cockerelli当前和未来在全世界的潜在分布区,揭示未来气候变化下考氏白盾蚧的分布动态,明确气候环境因素对其潜在分布的影响。【方法】以考氏白盾蚧为研究对象,基于考氏白盾蚧在全球的118条有效地理分布记录和19个环境变量,运用优化的MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件,推测气候变化下当前、2050年和2070年考氏白盾蚧的潜在分布格局,采用响应曲线确定环境变量的适宜区间,定量确定考氏白盾蚧未来气候条件下潜在地理分布动态。【结果】MaxEnt模型运算的平均曲线下面积(area under the curve, AUC)值为0.7182,表明该预测模型的预测精度比较高。当前考氏白盾蚧潜在地理分布的总适生区面积约为2.73×10^(7) km^(2),其中高适生区面积大约为4.37×10^(6) km^(2),占潜在可入侵总面积的16%,该区域主要位于美国与巴西西南沿海地区,印度西部地区及西部沿海区域,孟加拉国,越南北部大部,中国西南大部及华东华中大部,以及日本南部地区;在未来气候条件下,伴随着CO浓度的升高,考氏白盾蚧的高适生面积将显著增加。影响考氏白盾蚧的潜在地理分布的主要环境变量为平均月温差、昼夜温差与年温差比、最湿季平均温度和降水季节性,其中昼夜温差与年温差比的贡献率最高,达到38.8%。【结论】本研究结果表明考氏白盾蚧适宜生境主要受平均月温差和昼夜温差与年温差比的影响。本研究为考氏白盾蚧的综合防治提供重要依据和数据支撑。

【Aim】 This study aims to analyze the potential distribution areas of landscape plant pest Pseudaulacaspis cockerelli in the world today and in the future, reveal the distribution dynamics of P. cockerelli under future climate change, and clarify the effects of climate and environmental factors on its potential distribution. 【Methods】 Taking P. cockerelli as the research target, based on 118 effective geographical distribution records and 19 environmental variables of P. cockerelli in the world, and using the optimized MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software, we speculated the potential distribution pattern of P. cockerelli in the current, 2050 and 2070, determined the suitable intervals of environmental variables with the response curves and quantified the potential geographic distribution dynamics of P. cockerelli under future climatic conditions. 【Results】 The average value of area under the curve(AUC) of MaxEnt model operation was 0.7182, indicating that the prediction accuracy of this prediction model was relatively high. The total area of potential geographic distribution of P. cockerelli in the current is about 2.73×10^(7) km^(2), of which the area of highly suitable habitat is about 4.37×10^(6) km^(2), accounting for 16% of the total area of potential invasion, being mainly located in the southwest coastal region of the United States and Brazil, the western region and western coastal region of India, Bangladesh, most of northern Vietnam, most of southwest, east and central China, and southern regions of Japan. Under future climatic conditions, the predicted highly suitable area for P. cockerelli will increase significantly along with the increase of COconcentration. The main environmental variables affecting the potential geographic distribution of P. cockerelli are the mean diurnal range, the diurnal temperature difference to annual temperature difference ratio, the mean temperature of the wettest season and the precipitation seasonality, with the contribution of the diurnal temperature difference to annual temperature difference ratio the highest, reaching 38.8%. 【Conclusion】 The results of this study suggest that the suitable habitat for P. cockerelli is mainly influenced by the mean diurnal range and the diurnal temperature difference to annual temperature difference ratio. This study provides an important basis and data support for the integrated control of P. cockerelli.