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基于计算机软件技术CA-Markov模型的土地利用变化模拟与预测 被引量:3

Simulation and Prediction of Land Use Changes Based on Computer Software Technology and CA-Markov Model
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摘要 随着科学技术的不断发展,计算机技术领域得到了越来越广泛的应用。本文基于机器学习开展了天津市1990—2020年的土地覆盖地图制作,并用软件模型预测了天津市土地利用动态分布,最后评价该城市的人口和土地城镇化的关系变化。结果表明:机器学习分类技术泛化能力强,分类精度高;CA-Markov模型预测结果与实际解译结果的Kappa系数为81.21%,有较好的可信度,现有的软件模型技术可以达到预测未来土地动态的目的;2020—2030年天津市各土地类型间转换趋于稳定,土地城镇化与人口城镇化趋于协调。 With the continuous development of science and technology,computer technology has been more and more widely used.Based on machine learning,this study analyzed the land cover map of Tianjin from 1990 to 2020,predicted the dynamic distribution of land use in Tianjin with software models,finally evaluated the relationship between population and land urbanization in the city.The results show that machine learning classification technology has strong generalization ability and high classification accuracy;The Kappa coefficient between the predicted results of CA Markov model and the actual interpretation results is 81.21%,which has good reliability.The existing software model technology can achieve the purpose of predicting future land dynamics;From 2020 to 2030,the transformation among various land types in Tianjin will be stable,and land urbanization and population urbanization will be coordinated in the future.
作者 潘璐阳 鹿琳琳 束磊 马永欢 刘昭华 何丹 PAN Luyang;LU Linlin;SHU Lei;MA Yonghuan;LIU Zhaohua;HE Dan(College of Geodesy and Geomatics,Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao Shandong 266590;International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals,Beijing 100094;Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science,Aerospace Information Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100094;School of Civil and Surveying&Mapping Engineering,Jiangxi University of Science and Technology,Ganzhou Jiangxi 314000;Information Center of the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China,Beijing 100812;College of Arts and Science of Beijing Union University,Beijing 100191)
出处 《软件》 2022年第10期42-45,共4页 Software
基金 2022年可持续发展大数据国际研究中心主任基金项目,项目名称:《基于地球大数据的城市可持续发展指标综合监测与评估》(CBAS2022DF016)。
关键词 计算机软件 土地利用 CA-Markov 模拟与预测 可持续发展 computer software land use CA-Markov simulation and prediction sustainable development
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