科技计划项目资助论文的时序特征分析

Analysis of Time Series Characteristics of Papers Funded by Science and Technology Projects

对科技计划项目资助论文的时序特征进行分析,为科技项目管理与评价等提供参考。从时间角度提出开展科技计划项目产出特征分析的相关指标,主要有项目资助论文首末篇发表时间、资助论文发表峰值时间、资助论文中值期等指标。以国家重大科学研究计划项目资助产出的SCI论文为样本,分析其时序特征。研究结果表明:项目资助论文发表数量在时间序列上呈类似“π”型变化趋势;68.83%的项目资助首篇论文发表时间在项目立项后的5个月内;83.12%的项目资助论文发表峰值时间在立项后的14~50个月;各项目资助论文的平均持续时长为79.56个月,是项目执行周期的1.33倍;项目资助论文发表中值期为项目立项后的31~51个月。

To analyze the time series characteristics of the papers funded by science and technology planning projects,to provide reference for the management and evaluation of science and technology projects.Relevant indicators were proposed to analyze the output characteristics of science and technology projects from the perspective of time,including the publication time of the first and last papers of the funded papers,the peak time of publication of the funded papers,and the median period of the funded papers.Taking the SCI papers funded by the National Major Scientific Research Program as a sample,the time series characteristics were analyzed.The number of project-funded papers published in the time series showed a similar“π”-type trend;68.83%of the projects published their first paper within five months after the projects was approved;83.12%of the projects published peak time of funded papers within 14~50 months after the project was approved;the average duration of funded papers of each project was 79.56 months,which was 1.33 times the project execution cycle;the median period of the funded papers was within 31~51 months after the project was approved.