长三角区域城市韧性测度与对策建议研究

A Study on Urban Resilience Measurement and Countermeasure Suggestions in the Yangtze River Delta Region

立足城市风险管理以及“双碳”目标,建立综合性评价指标,结合博弈组合赋权法与模糊物元分析法测算长三角区域以及41个城市的韧性水平,借助自然间断点法划分等级并进行空间可视化分析,通过全局莫兰指数进行空间自相关分析。研究结果显示:一是长三角区域城市韧性水平整体呈现上升趋势;二是时空特征表现为,全域视角下东部地区城市韧性水平高于西部地区,高韧性等级的城市主要集中在城市群的中东部,省域视角下上海韧性水平始终处于领先地位,浙江省略高于江苏省,安徽省相对较低,市域视角下韧性等级高的城市呈现以上海为中心先后向西、向南、向北扩散发展;三是城市韧性水平呈现正向的空间自相关性,集聚态势基本形成并有缓慢增强的趋势。

Based on urban risk management and the goal of“double carbon”,a comprehensive evaluation index is established,the resilience level of the Yangtze River Delta region and 41 cities is measured by combining the game combination weighting method and the fuzzy element analysis method,and a spatial autocorrelation analysis is carried out by using the natural discontinuity method to classify the levels and spatial visualization analysis,and the global Moran index.The results of the study show that:firstly,the overall urban resilience level of the Yangtze River Delta region shows an upward trend;secondly,the spatial and temporal characteristics show that the resilience level of cities in the eastern region is higher than that in the western region from a global perspective,and the cities with high resilience levels are mainly concentrated in the central-eastern part of the urban agglomeration.The cities with high resilience levels from the city perspective show a spatial autocorrelation with Shanghai as the center spreading westwards,southwards and northwards,with Zhejiang Province slightly higher than Jiangsu Province,while Anhui Province relatively lower;and thirdly,the resilience levels of cities show a positive spatial autocorrelation,and the agglomeration trend has basically formed and is slowly increasing.