关于当前宏观经济形势的思考

Reflections on the current macroeconomic situation

2020年以来,受新冠肺炎疫情反复、乌克兰危机等因素的影响,全球经济经历了国际金融危机爆发以来最大的不确定性。面对国内外复杂的形势,中国经济整体运行平稳。但也要清醒地认识到,当前宏观经济形势不仅比改革开放以来的任何时候都更为严峻,而且与以往任何时候都不同。只有正确判断当前经济形势的严峻性和复杂性,厘清制约宏观经济平稳运行的外部因素,以及实现经济社会可持续发展的内部考验,解析影响中国经济高质量发展的因素及内在机制,明晰当前宏观经济形势背景下决策层审慎判断并着力推动的宏观经济管理目标,破解纷繁复杂的社会现象背后反映出的经济社会矛盾,才能有效应对国际复杂形势的冲击,准确把握国内发展的目标和诉求,破解难题,迎难而上,转危为机,迈向稳增长、稳预期、高质量的发展之路。

Since 2020,the global economy has experienced the greatest uncertainty since the outbreak of the international financial crisis due to the repeated outbreak of the COVID-19,the Ukraine crisis and other factors.Facing the complicated situation at domestic and abroad,China’s overall economic development was stable.But it must also be soberly aware that the current macroeconomic situation is not only more severe than at any time since the reform and opening up,but also different from any time before.Only by correctly judging the severity and complexity of the current economic situation,clarifying the external factors that restrict the smooth operation of the macro economy,as well as the internal tests to achieve sustainable economic and social development,analyzing the factors and internal mechanisms that affect the high-quality development of China’s economy,and clarify the prudent judgment of decision-makers and focus on promoting macroeconomic management goals under the background of the current economic situation,and solves the economic and social contradictions reflected in the complex social phenomena,then it can effectively deal with the impact of the complex international situation,accurately grasp the goals and demands of domestic development,solve problems,face difficulties,turn crises into opportunities,and move towards a road of stable growth,stable expectations,and high-quality development.