“十四五”规划期我国食品冷链物流需求预测

Forecast of China's food Cold Chain Logistics Demand During the“Fourteenth Five Year Plan”Period

《“十四五”冷链物流发展规划》对包括肉类、果蔬等食品冷链物流的发展与建设提出了总体方向和具体要求,为减少浪费、高质量地达到要求,需要有基础的食品冷链物流需求预测数据作为未来计划与决策的依据。通过构建灰色预测模型,对我国“十四五”规划期食品冷链物流需求进行预测,并推演了更长期趋势,进一步对接2035年远景目标。根据2015—2021年基础数据,将包括水果、蔬菜等六种食品冷链总需求量进行定量估值。经检验,该模型模拟效果较好。对预测结果进行了分析并为未来食品冷链物流发展提出了建议。

The“14th five-year plan for cold chain logistics development”puts forward the general direction and specific requirements for the development and construction of food cold chain logistics including meat,fruits and vegetables.In order to reduce waste and meet the requirements with high quality,it is necessary to have food cold chain logistics demand forecast data which are used as the basis for future plan and decision.This paper constructs a grey forecast model to forecast the demand for food cold chain logistics during the“14th five-year plan”period in China,and projects longer-term trends to further connect with the 2035 long-term goals.According to the basic data from 2015 to 2021,the total demand for the cold chain of six kinds of food including fruits and vegetables are quantitatively estimated.Verification shows the simulation effect of this model is acceptable.The prediction results are analyzed and suggestions for the future development of food cold chain logistics are put forward.