西藏地区产业结构与人口流动——基于县域数据的空间实证分析

Regional industrial structure and population flow in Tibet——Spatial empirical analysis based on county data

人口变动与空间再分配,对区域经济的协调和可持续发展有重要影响,“十四五”时期,西藏要实现经济社会高质量发展的目标,就要解决好作为经济发展空间载体的区域经济与人的发展的匹配问题。文章从产业结构优化和人口要素流动的角度对西藏地区的高质量发展进行分析,在整理西藏县域统计资料和各县自然禀赋数据的基础上,构建产业升级指数,通过空间实证分析发现,西藏县域人口存在空间集聚的趋势,整体上向省会中心集中,局部向各县县城集中,其中,第一产业占比对县域人口流动起到积极作用,拉萨市等经济相对发达地区产业结构升级对人口流入有显著的促进效应。因此,要全面贯彻落实新时代党的治藏方略,充分发挥各地区比较优势,因地制宜发展高原特色产业,促进各类要素合理流动和高效集聚,在切实保护好青藏高原生态环境的同时,形成带动西藏地区高质量发展的创新动力源和发展增长极。

Population change and spatial redistribution have an important impact on the coordinated and sustainable development of regional economies.During the 14 th Five-Year Plan period,to achieve the goal of high-quality economic and social development in Tibet,it is necessary to solve the problem of matching the regional economy and people’s development as the spatial carrier of economic development.This paper analyzes the high-quality development of Tibet from the perspective of industrial structure optimization and population factor flow.On the basis of sorting out the statistical data and natural endowment data of counties in Tibet,it constructs the industrial upgrading index.Through the spatial empirical analysis,it is found that the population of counties in Tibet has a trend of spatial agglomeration,which is concentrated in the provincial capital centers on the whole and in the counties on the part.Among them,the proportion of primary industry plays a positive role in county population flow,and the upgrading of industrial structure in relatively developed areas such as Lhasa City has a significant promoting effect on population inflow.Therefore,it is necessary to fully implement the Party’s strategy for the governance of Tibet in the new era,give full play to the comparative advantages of various regions,develop industries with characteristics of the plateau in light of local conditions,and promote the rational flow and efficient aggregation of various factors of production.While effectively protecting the ecological environment on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,we should create a source of innovation and a pole of growth for high-quality development in the region.