自雇型就业的生育效应与作用机理

Fertility Effects and the Mechanism of Self-Employment

2021年我国灵活就业规模高达2亿人,其中自雇型就业已成为灵活就业的主要形式之一。利用2013年、2015年及2017年中国综合社会调查(CGSS)数据,实证检验自雇型就业如何影响二孩生育意愿,发现:自雇型就业可以显著提高二孩生育意愿,相对于“生存型自雇”,“机会型自雇”对二孩生育意愿的积极效应更强。异质性分析表明,对女性及东部地区个体而言,自雇对二孩生育意愿的提升作用更大。作用机制检验结果表明,自雇型就业可以通过提高个人职业收入、主观幸福感以及主观阶层流动预期对二孩生育意愿产生积极效应。基本社会保障的覆盖会提高自雇型就业群体二孩生育意愿与生育行为的一致性,有利于自雇型就业群体将二孩生育意愿转化为实际生育行为。

In 2021,the scale of flexible employment in China has reached 200 million people,of which self-employment has become one of the main forms of flexible employment.Will the fertility desire of a large number of self-employed employment groups change?Based on the China General Social Survey(CGSS)data in 2013,2015 and 2017,this paper empirically examines how self-employment affects the fertility desire of second child and its mechanism.It is found that self-employment significantly increases the fertility desire of second child,especially the positive effect of“opportunistic self-employment”on the fertility desire of second child is stronger than“survival self-employment”.Heterogeneity analysis shows that self-employment has a greater effect on the fertility desire of second child among women and individuals of eastern region.The results of the mechanism test suggest that self-employment can have a positive effect on the fertility desire of second child by increasing occupational income,subjective well-being,and subjective class mobility expectations.Further research shows that the coverage of basic social security increases the consistency of second-child fertility desires and fertility behaviors among self-employed workers,which is conducive to the conversion of self-employed workers'second-child fertility desires into actual fertility behaviors.This paper provides a useful reference for broadening the research on self-employment and promoting the development of an inclusive social security system covering self-employed employment groups.