京津冀基本公共服务均等化对北京市人口规模和人力资本水平的影响

The Effect of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Basic Public Services’ Equalization on Beijing’s Population Size and Human Capital Level

本文使用2015年国家卫健委的流动人口动态监测调查估计了流动人口区位选择的条件Logit模型,继而模拟了京津冀城市基本公共服务均等化对北京市人口规模和人力资本水平的影响。结果发现,如果通过中央转移支付实现京津冀基本公共服务均等化,将河北和天津城市的基本公共服务水平都提升到北京市的水平,对北京市人口规模和人力资本水平的影响很小。如果通过北京市疏解非首都功能来实现京津冀基本公共服务均等化,将会较大幅度减少北京市人口规模,并小幅降低其人力资本水平。

This paper utilizes the 2015 migrant population dynamic monitoring survey data to estimate the conditional Logit model that represents location choice of migrant population, and then simulate the effect of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei basic public services’ equalization on Beijing’s population size and human capital level. We reach the following conclusions. If the central government supports Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei basic public services’ equalization by transfer payment so that Hebei’s cities’ and Tianjin city’s basic public services are improved as good as Beijing city’s, Beijing city’s population size and human capital level are almost not affected. If the equalization of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei basic public services is realized through the relocation of Beijing’s non-capital functions, Beijing’s population size will be greatly decreased and its human capital level would be slightly reduced.