基于时间序列分析的高速公路小修工程量预测

Prediction of Minor Repair Quantity Based on Time Series Analysis Method for Expressway

日常养护预算计划编制是高速公路日常养护管理的重要内容之一,小修工程量的大小决定了日常养护预算的高低,科学合理地确定小修工程量至关重要。文中通过定量化分析不同小修细目工程量与潜在影响因素之间的关系,将高速公路小修细目分为有具体影响因素的细目和无具体影响因素的细目两类;针对后者,采用时间序列分析法进行小修工程量预测,并依托某高速公路的3个小修细目进行验证。结果表明,时间序列分析法对于表现为随机性特征的小修细目工程量预测具有较好的测算效果。

The daily maintenance budget planning is one of the important contents of the daily maintenance management of expressways.The size of the minor repair works determines the level of the daily maintenance budget,and it is very important to determine the amount of the minor repair works scientifically and reasonably.By quantitatively analyzing the relationship between the quantities of different minor repairs and potential influencing factors,the minor repairs of expressway are divided into two categories:those with specific influencing factors and those without specific influencing factors.For the latter,time series analysis is used to predict the quantity of minor repairs,and it is verified by relying on three minor repairs of a certain expressway.The results show that the time series analysis method has a good calculation effect for the prediction of the quantity of minor repairs with random characteristics.