双碳、双区背景下深圳电力需求预测

Power Demand Forecast for Shenzhen Under Carbon Peak and Neutrality and Greater Bay Area and Pilot Demonstration Area of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics

[目的]为了适应“双碳”和“双区”新背景下深圳未来用电特征的研究,反映新形势下诸多新因素的影响,需要在传统电力需求预测方法上进行修正,建立新的预测体系。[方法]在电量预测上,一方面以碳强度控制为导向,结合对全社会电气化水平的要求,提出“自上而下”的预测方法;另一方面以改进的细分部门法和新型负荷修正法,进行“自下而上”预测,相互佐证;在负荷预测上,充分考虑需求侧管理、相关削峰手段的影响。[结果]通过量化分析“双碳”目标下能源供应及消费结构调整,“双区”驱动下新基建、产业结构调整和转移等重要因素的影响,对深圳“十四五”及中远期全社会用电量进行预测,并对深圳未来最高负荷和负荷特性发展趋势进行预判。[结论]所提方法为其他地区进行新形势下电力需求预测提供了新思路,预测结果也为深圳后续电源和电网规划及调度运行等提供了重要参考。

[Introduction]The research aims to establish a new forecasting methodology to study the future electricity consumption features in Shenzhen based on the correction of traditional power demand forecasting methods. The new methodology could reflect the influence of the recently issued policies, such as the "carbon peak and neutrality" and "construction of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and pilot demonstration area of socialism with Chinese characteristics." [Method]For electricity consumption forecast,a "top-down" forecasting method guided by carbon intensity control and considering social electrification level was proposed, and "bottom-up" forecasting was made using the improved multi-sectoral method and new load correction method to validate the forecasting results. For load characteristics forecasting, the impact of demand side management and peak shaving means was fully considered.[Result]Through quantitative analysis of the energy supply and consumption mix adjustment under key impact factors, including "carbon peak and neutrality," new infrastructure, industrial structure adjustment and transfer under "construction of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and pilot demonstration area of socialism with Chinese characteristics," the total electricity consumption in Shenzhen during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period and in the middle to long term, as well the development trend of the future peak load and load characteristics in Shenzhen were forecasted. [Conclusion]The proposed forecasting methodology provides new idea for other regions in power demand forecast under new policies, and the results provide an important reference for guiding Shenzhen’s subsequent power source and grid planning, dispatch and operation, etc.