基于主成分回归的运输飞机超轮速诱因研究

Study on the Inducement of Transport Aircraft Exceeding Tire Speed Rating Based on Principal Component Regression

针对民航运行中飞机超轮速严重影响运行安全的情况,为了定量研究运输飞机超轮速诱因,提出了一种基于主成分回归的超轮速诱因分析模型。研究将起飞离地速度作为对象,从机组操纵、飞机性能、飞机姿态、飞机位置和运行环境等方面选取了影响起飞离地速度的参数,利用主成分分析方法对参数进行降维,并建立了回归模型,分析了各因素对离地速度的影响。利用空客飞机的超轮速事件数据进行了算例仿真,仿真结果表明,所建模型可以有效地实现各因素与起飞离地速度的定量关系估计。研究可为防范起飞超轮速事件、降低民航运行风险提供解决方案。

In order to quantitatively study the inducement of exceeding tire speed rating of transport aircraft, an incentive analysis model based on principal component regression method is proposed in view of the serious impact of exceeding tire speed rating on operation safety of civil aviation. Taking the lift-off speed as the object of study, the parameters affecting the lift-off speed were selected from the aspects of crew control, aircraft performance, aircraft attitude, aircraft position and operating environment. Then, the principal component analysis method was used to reduce the dimension of the parameters. Finally, the regression model was established to analyze the influence of various factors on the lift-off speed. An example was simulated by using the data of Airbus aircraft that have experienced the event of exceeding tire speed rating. The simulation results show that the model can effectively estimate the relationship between various factors and the lift-off speed. The study can provide a solution to prevent the exceeding tire speed rating event during takeoff and reduce the operation risk of civil aviation.