大萧条的教训与遗产:基于制度改革的考察

Lessons from and Legacy of the Great Depression:A Comprehensive Survey

以美国为案例,本文运用“重大事件冲击方法”分析大萧条的冲击和“新政”改革对“美国体制”的长久影响。虽然学界对美国新政具体政策的效果还存在巨大的争论,但是其最重要的遗产在于对美国体制的改造。美国新政改革推动了最高法院对联邦政府职能解释的根本性转变,改变了政府在社会经济中的角色,重塑了联邦、州、地方三级政府与市场、社会之间的关系,通过“棘轮效应”,使美国体制走向新的路径,形成存续长达50年的所谓“新政秩序”。大萧条的冲击和应对这种冲击的制度遗产或许可以证明,某种充满不确定性的重大冲击事件往往具有打破路径依赖效应的性质,而新的路径不是取决于事件本身,而是在很大程度上取决于改革者对事件的解释和联想。

Taking the United States as an example,this paper uses the “great event shock” method to analyze the impact of the Great Depression and the “New Deal” reform on the “American System”.Although there is still a great debate about the effect of the “New Deal”,the most important legacy of the New Deal,namely the transformation of the American system,is beyond doubt.It promoted the fundamental transformation of the Supreme Court’s interpretation of the functions of the federal government,fundamentally transformed the role of the federal government,reshaped the relationship between the federal,state,local governments and the market as well as society system,and made the “American System” move towards a new path.The shock of the Great Depression and the institutional legacy of dealing with it may demonstrate that an “event shock” full of uncertainty will break the “path-dependence” effect.The new path depends not on the event itself but to a large extent on the reformers’ interpretation and whim of the event.