中国姓氏人口的历史计量分析:典型特征、决定因素与作用机制

An Econometric and Historical Analysis of Chinese Surname Population:Typical Characteristic,Decisive Factors and Mechanism of Action

中国姓氏人口中的大姓与小姓差异很大,人口高度集中于大姓。本文首次对中国姓氏人口的决定因素进行深入的历史计量分析,使用2012年中国汉族人口排名前500位的姓氏数据(占汉族总人口约99.8%),在大量描述性分析的基础上,进一步通过回归分析揭示了中国姓氏人口分布的典型特征。首先,中国姓氏人口的分布大致服从齐普夫定律,但也有明显偏差。其次,姓氏历史越久远,姓氏作为国姓时间越长,平均而言姓氏人口也越多。这些实证结果通过了一系列稳健性检验,包括控制姓氏的笔画、声调、是否复姓,使用子样本区分统一与分裂政权的国姓,以及针对国姓组与非国姓组进行倾向得分匹配。进一步,我们发现姓氏采用率(以姓氏起源数目与少数民族姓氏人口数为代理变量)与人口迁移率(以姓氏人口的地理集中度为代理变量)是驱动以上结果的两个作用机制。通过东西方比较发现,中国较高的姓氏集中度,其原因可能在于中国历史上的政治稳定性较高,文化延续性较强,而社会流动的制度性障碍较少。

China has a great concentration of surname population.Based on the 2012 Chinese census data of top 500 surname population(about 99.8%of the Han population),this paper reveals several important stylized facts.First,the surname distribution follows the Zipf’s law,but with a substantial deviation.Second,a larger surname population is associated with greater antiquity of the surname and longer duration as a royal surname.Furthermore,we find that adoption rate of surname(proxied by the number of surname origins and minority surname population)and migration rate of surname population(proxied by geographic concentration of surname populations)are two important mechanisms.It appears that the greater political stability,stronger cultural persistence,and fewer obstacles to social mobility have contributed to the great concentration of surname population in China.