日本与华北地区强震活动相关性再讨论

Rediscussion on the Correlation of Strong Earthquake Activities Between Japan and North China

大量研究认为,日本地区强震活动与华北地区的中强地震活动之间存在一定相关关系。通过梳理太平洋板块西北缘俯冲带的大震活动,在搜集历史资料的基础上,结合构造背景,重新对日本与华北地区强震活动的相关性进行了分析,最终认为:日本地区8级以上大震与华北地区6级强震之间不存在一一对应的直接相关关系;日本和华北地区大的地震活动期和稳定期具有某种对应性,华北地区活动期的强释放阶段与东西两个构造边界活动存在联系;2011年日本“311”9.0级地震的余震活动基本结束,日本地区可能已经恢复背景的活动节律;当前华北地区可能仍处于活动期末尾的调整期,未来几年,华北地区仍存在进入剩余释放阶段最后一个活跃幕的可能。

A large number of studies suggest that there is a certain correlation between strong earthquakes in Japan and moderate-strong earthquakes in North China.This paper reviews the large earthquake activities in the subduction zone of the northwestern margin of the Pacific plate.On the basis of collecting historical data,combining with the tectonic background,the correlation between strong earthquake activities in Japan and North China is analyzed again.In the end,it is considered that there is no one-to-one correspondence between the earthquakes with M≥8 in Japan and the strong earthquakes of M6 in North China.There is a certain correspondence between the large earthquake activity period and the stable period in Japan and North China,and the strong release phase of the active period in North China is related to the activities of the two tectonic boundaries in the east and west.The aftershocks of the"311"M9.0 earthquake in Japan in 2011 has basically ended,and the background activity rhythm may have been restored in Japan.At present,North China may still be in the adjustment period at the end of the active period.In the next few years,there is still the possibility of entering the last active episode of the remaining release phase in North China.