华南地区定点形变预测指标建设

Construction of Fixed-point Deformation Prediction Index in South China

基于《中国震例》及其它相关资料,构建华南地区定点形变预测指标体系,分类整理形变干扰库和形变异常库,列举出部分预测效能较好的形变指标,结果表明:华南地区区分干扰和前兆异常的工作量较大,排除干扰后实际发生的前兆异常次数不多。各省均有少量测项对于台站周边200~300 km范围内M_(L)4.5地震有较好的映震效果。华南地震预测指标体系开展的一系列建设工作,将对未来更有效更科学地利用前兆观测数据打下基础。

Based on earthquake cases in China and other related data,the fixed-point deformation prediction index system of South China is constructed,the deformation interference database and deformation abnormality database are classified and sorted,and some deformation indexes with better prediction efficiency are listed.The results show that it is a heavy work to distinguish interference and abnormal anomalies in South China,and the number of precursory anomalies that actually occur after eliminating interference is small.There are a small number of measurement items in each province,which have a good seismic reflection effect for M_(L)4.5 earthquakes within the range of 200-300 km around the station.The series of construction work carried out by the South China Earthquake Prediction Index System will lay the foundation for more effective and scientific use of precursory observation data in the future.