航空维修系统安全绩效动力学建模与仿真分析

Dynamic Modeling and Simulation Analysis of Aviation Maintenance System Safety Performance

考虑航空维修系统内外部因素的影响,对其安全绩效进行动力学建模与仿真分析,为掌握系统安全变化趋势,不断调整安全措施提供依据。在界定安全绩效概念的基础上,提出构成安全绩效的3个维度,即组织安全形势、安全过程控制能力和组织学习能力。通过分析不同维度安全绩效影响因素,运用Vensim PLE6.0建模软件,构建相应的因果关系图,建立安全绩效动力学仿真模型,分别对行动准备时间和目标值变化时的安全绩效变化趋势进行模拟仿真。结果表明:及时应对安全形势变化和合理设定安全绩效目标,有助于实现安全绩效的最大化。

Considering the influence of the internal and external factors of aviation maintenance system,the dynamic modeling and simulation analysis of safety performance are carried out,which provides foundation for mastering the safety changing trend,and continuously adjusting safety measures.On the basis of defining the concept of safety performance,its three dimensions for the formation of safety performance are put forward,which are organizational safety situation,safety process control capability and organizational learning capability.By analyzing the influencing factors of safety performance in different dimensions and using the modeling software of Vensim PLE6.0,the corresponding causal relationship diagram and safety performance dynamics model are established,when the action preparation time and safety performance target values change the safety performance change trend is simulated respectively.The results show that timely response to safety situation changes and reasonable settings of safety performance objectives are helpful to maximize the safety performance.