装备体系贡献率信度规则评估模型及方法

Reliabilityrule-based Evaluation Model and Method of Equipment Contribution Rate to Equipment System

新时代装备科研必须坚持体系思维,以体系贡献率为重要依据决定装备发展优先顺序等关键问题。针对装备体系贡献率评估数据来源广、类型多、不确定性强等特点,基于规则推理计算体系能力需求满足度,构建能力需求满足度空间模型,以此建立一种装备体系贡献率信度规则评估模型,并形成相应评估方法。利用该模型评估方法,针对“空地联合,快速突击,夺取要地”任务,开展某型无人机对空地联合作战装备体系贡献率的评估分析,结果验证了所提模型和方法的合理性和可行性,反映出该模型和方法能够为体系规划装备科研,明确装备发展优先顺序等国防科技领域重大决策提供辅助参考。

In the new era,the system thinking must be adhered to and the system contribution rate should be regarded as an important basis to decide the priority of the equipment development for the equipment scientic research.Considering such characteristics of equipment system contribution rate evaluation data as wide sources,multiple types and strong uncertainty,etc.System capability demand satisfaction degree based on rule-based reasoning is calculated,the spacial models of capability demand satisfaction degree are established,on this basis,the reliability-based evaluation model of equipment contribution rate to equipment system is constructed,and the corresponding evaluation is formed method.The model evaluation method is utilized,for the mission of ‘air-ground joint,rapid assault,and capture of important areas’,some type of drone is carried out contribution rate to equipment systems evaluation and analysis to the air-ground joint combat.The results verify the rationality and feasibility of the proposed model and method,the model and method can provide an auxiliary reference for making major decisions in the field of defense science and technology,such as system planning,equipment scientific research,and clarifying the priority of equipment development.