中国煤炭产能时空格局演变及碳中和支撑政策研究

Research on Temporal and Spatial Pattern of Coal De-capacity and Carbon Neutralization Support Policy in China

以全国县级行政区为研究单元,采用重心迁移模型、平均最近邻指数以及局部空间自相关指数等方法,在分析2015-2020年我国煤炭生产格局演变的基础上,对煤炭去产能时空格局进行分析。结果表明:(1)2015-2020年,我国七成县级行政区煤炭产能下降,煤炭有效采矿权数量减少超过一半,采矿权空间集聚性进一步增强,逐步形成以大中型采矿权为主体的生产格局。(2)2015-2020年,全国煤炭生产重心向西北方向迁移,由山西吕梁市交口县迁移至山西临县与陕西榆林市佳县交界处,开发活动进一步向资源富集区集中。(3)“十三五”期间累计退出煤炭采矿权近5000个,去产能超6亿t,云贵高原、宁东、蒙西、晋北、陕北、豫西和鲁皖交界等地区在去产能数量方面形成了明显的高-高集聚区,而从去产能占有效期内煤炭总产能比重来看,则在长江经济带形成了明显的高-高集聚区。提出煤炭领域支撑国家碳中和目标实现的政策建议。

Based on the analysis of China’s coal production pattern evolution during 2015-2020,this study took the national county-level administrative regions as the research unit,and used the methods of gravity migration model,average nearest neighbor index and local spatial auto-correlation index to analyze the temporal and spatial pattern of coal de-capacity.The research shows that:(1)During 2015-2020,the coal production capacity in 70%of county-level administrative regions decreased,the number of effective coal mining rights in China decreased by more than 50%,the spatial agglomeration of mining rights was further enhanced,and the production pattern dominated by large and medium-sized mining rights was gradually formed;(2)During 2015-2020,the gravity of national coal production has moved northwest from Jiaokou County of Luliang City,Shanxi Province to the junction of Lin County and Jia County of Yulin City,Shaanxi Province,the development activities have further concentrated in coal resources rich areas;(3)Nearly 5000 coal mining rights were withdrawn,and the accumulated coal production de-capacity has exceeded 600 million tons.The Yunnan Guizhou Plateau,eastern Ningxia,western Inner Mongolia,northern Shanxi,northern Shaanxi,western Henan and the junction of Shandong and Anhui have formed obvious high-high agglomeration areas.While in terms of the proportion of de-capacity to effective capacity,the Yangtze River economic belt has formed obvious high-high agglomeration areas.Based on the above results,policy suggestions for coal industry to support the realization of national carbon neutralization goal are put forward.