基于马尔可夫理论的舰炮装备使用可用度预测方法

A Method for Predicting the Availability of Naval Guns Based on the Markov Theory

针对舰炮装备间歇式工作、维修保障机制复杂、基层数据形式多样的使用特点,传统的基于可靠性、维修性及保障性的计算方法,仅可用于在舰炮装备经历了一定时间的使用后的分析评估,而使用部队往往更关心在未来的作战中,装备能否具备执行任务的能力。根据舰炮装备的特点,基于马尔可夫状态转移理论,研究提出了一种舰炮装备的使用可用度预测方法,并实地采集了装备的使用数据,建立了装备的多层次下多状态转移方程,计算了系统的可用度稳态解以及瞬态解,并根据历史数据进行了评估,验证了方法的准确性,本方法同样适用于其他具有多状态、多层次的复杂系统。

Naval guns usually operate intermittently and their maintenance support mechanism is complex and basic data are in a variety of forms. Traditional calculation methods based on reliability, maintainability and supportability can only be used for evaluating naval guns that have been put into operation for some time. But combat units tend to be more concerned about whether the equipment could operate properly in future combat. Based on the characteristics of naval guns and the Markov state transition theory, a method for predicting the availability of naval gun equipment was proposed in the paper. Operation data of the equipment were collected on the spot and multi-level, multi-state transition equations for the equipment established. The steady-state solution and transient solution of system availability were found and verified using historic data. This method is also applicable to other complex multi-state and multi-level systems.