美国货币政策转向对中国经济的冲击效应与政策应对

Shock Effects of US Monetary Policy Shift on China’s Economy and Policy Responses

随着我国对外开放程度逐渐加深,美国实施的货币政策将给中国经济带来日益严重的冲击,科学测度外部冲击是正确研判形势并实施合理应对策略的前提。结合中美货币政策周期不同步特征,本文定量刻画美国货币政策不确定性在中美不同利差区间对中国经济的影响,并模拟美国加息政策可能给中国经济带来的冲击。研究发现:美国货币政策不确定性和加息政策将导致中国实体经济与金融市场在短期内波动加剧,美国货币政策溢出效应不会影响中国经济的长期发展趋势。因此,为应对美国货币政策不确定性,中国应坚持稳健适度的货币政策,增强政策实施过程中的透明度,推动经济高质量发展。

As China’s economic opening process accelerates, the US monetary policy shift will have a more serious impact on China’s economy. The purpose of this study is to measure the impact of US monetary policy shift and give suggestions on appropriate policy responses.This article selects the interest rate spread between China and US as a proxy variable for the impact of the US monetary policy, theoretically analyzes the impact mechanism of the US monetary policy shift on China’s economy, and empirically tests the impact of the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut on China’s real economy and capital market under different interest rate spread ranges. On this basis, the paper quantitatively measures the possible impact of the Fed’s interest rate hike policy on China’s economy under different interest rate spreads.The results show that no matter with high or low US interest rate spreads, the uncertainty of the US monetary policy shift may cause significant fluctuations in China’s macro economy in the short term and exert negative impact on the real economy and financial market. However, the negative impact could be resolved in a short time. The Fed’s interest rate increase may negatively affect the stock market and the real estate market, cause supply and demand fluctuations in China’s macro economy,and have a short-term negative impact on output and inflation. However, in the long run, the risks can be turned into opportunities to promote the growth of the real economy.Facing the US monetary policy shift, this paper gives two suggestions. Firstly, the central bank should continue to maintain a prudent and moderate monetary policy, reserve the room for price monetary policy regulation, give timely and appropriate reverse adjustment to the liquidity contraction of the US monetary policy shift, and maintain the independence and initiative of monetary policy. Secondly, China should stabilize market expectations, improve the regulatory effect of forward guidance and policy transparency, and reduce the negative impact of the uncertainty in US monetary policy shift on investor sentiment and expectations.