汇率政策不确定性的创新效应——来自涉外经营企业的经验证据

The Innovation Effect of Foreign Exchange Policy Uncertainty-Evidence on Firms with International Business

汇率政策调整与微观经济主体无法准确预期汇率政策变化情况将形成“汇率政策不确定性”。本文以易受汇率冲击的涉外经营企业为研究对象,探索汇率政策不确定性影响企业创新的作用机制。研究发现:在汇率政策不确定性上升时,涉外经营企业研发投资与未来专利产出提升,创新文本信息披露显著增加。汇率政策不确定性的创新激励效应在事前汇率风险更高、属于高技术产业、面临激烈市场竞争的样本中更为显著。进一步研究发现:汇率政策不确定性虽约束信贷规模,但会促使企业寻找替代性融资支持研发。本文拓展了经济政策不确定性与汇率波动微观后果的研究范畴,为监管部门引导企业应对汇率政策冲击、提升国际竞争力提供启示。

Under the new development pattern of"Dual Circulation",Chinese firms go abroad through international trade,foreign direct investment,etc.Firms,especially those with international business,will inevitably face the influence of foreign exchange factors.The adjustments of foreign exchange policy and the uncertain expectations of firms on policy implementation,may form foreign exchange policy uncertainty(FEPU),which will further affect firm behaviors.Using firms with international business which are vulnerable to exchange rate shocks as samples,this paper explores the conducting channels through which the FEPU affects firm innovation.This paper proposes two channels through which the foreign exchange policy uncertainty may affect firm innovation activities:real option effect and growth option effect.In addition to that,the competitive hypothesis is also raised on how foreign exchange policy uncertainty affects firm narrative innovation disclosure:cost constraint effect and information transfer effect.The empirical results show that when FEPU intensifies,firms with international business have higher R&D intensity,more active patenting activities and are more inclined to disclose innovation information in financial reports.The positive relation is more significant in firms with higher ex ante exchange rate exposure,operating in high-tech industry,and facing more intense competition.This paper focuses on the innovation incentive effect of foreign exchange policy uncertainty,expanding the research scope of the consequences of economic policy uncertainty and exchange rate fluctuations.It provides enlightenment for Chinese firms to cope with the potential weakening effect of international competitiveness caused by adverse exchange rate shocks,and the conclusion provides several beneficial suggestions for regulators in guiding the technological progress of enterprises.