农业技术进步、农村人力资本投资与农业发展的关系研究——基于东北三省PVAR模型的实证分析

Research on the Relationship between Agricultural Technology Progress,Rural Human Capital Investment and Agricultural Development——Empirical Analysis based on the PVAR Model of the Three Northeastern Provinces

党的十九大提出实施乡村振兴战略,加快农业农村现代化建设。科技振兴与人才振兴是乡村振兴战略的重点。基于中国政府对农业的重视程度,利用1995~2019年省级面板数据,选取东北三省的农业技术进步、农村人力资本投资、农民收入和农业总产值作为系统框架,构建相应的PVAR模型,利用稳定性检验、脉冲响应和方差分解等方法对其关系以及变量之间的影响效应进行实证研究。研究表明,农业技术进步、农村人力资本投资与农业总产值、农村居民收入之间相互影响,农业技术进步更易受到农业总产值增加的影响,而农村人力资本投资受农村居民收入的影响较强。基于此,为促进农业经济发展,提出积极推动农机作业向合作社方向发展、完善农村人力资本流动机制以及优化农村人力资本投资保障工作的政策建议。

The Nineteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed to implement the strategy of rural revitalization and accelerate the modernization of agriculture and rural areas.Science and technology revitalization and talent revitalization are the key points of the rural revitalization strategy.Based on the importance attached by the Chinese government to agriculture,this paper uses the provincial panel data from 1995 to 2019,selects the agricultural technological progress,rural human capital investment,farmers'income and agricultural output value of the three northeastern provinces as the system framework to construct the corresponding PVAR model.Using stability test,impulse response and variance decomposition and other methods to conduct empirical research on the relationship between them and the influence between variables.The results show that the progress of agricultural technology,the investment of rural human capital and the total agricultural output value and the income of rural residents interact with each other,and the progress of agricultural technology is more easily affected by the increase of the total agricultural output value,while the investment in rural human capital is strongly affected by the income of rural residents.In order to improve the development of agricultural economy,we should actively promote the development of agricultural machinery operations towards cooperatives,improve the flow mechanism of rural human capital,and optimize the guarantee of rural human capital investment.