杠杆系列错估与信贷资源错配

Leverage Series Misestimate and Credit Resource Mismatch

结构性杠杆治理的重点在于优化信贷资源配置结构,这要求金融机构必须掌握真实的杠杆和风险水平。但由于“资产”和“资本”混淆,银行对企业的杠杆、收益率和短期偿债能力产生普遍错估(即杠杆系列错估)。文章基于“资本”概念设计的修正指标对企业财务信息进行了矫正,利用2008-2018年上市公司数据进行了实证检验,暴露出杠杆系列错估下的双向信贷资源错配:第一,对杠杆高估、收益率低估以及短期偿债能力低估公司存在信贷资源配置不足,对短期偿债能力高估公司存在信贷资源配置过度。第二,“高信贷风险”企业容易出现信贷资源配置过度,而“低信贷风险”企业容易出现信贷资源配置不足。第三,由杠杆系列错估引发的信贷资源错配问题在我国东部地区、技术密集型和竞争性行业中更加严重。文章通过揭示杠杆系列错估背后潜藏的信贷资源错配风险,为企业结构性杠杆治理提供了有针对性的应对策略,以及需重点关注的区域和行业。

The key of structural leverage governance is to optimize the efficiency of credit resource allocation, which requires financial institutions to master the real information of enterprises’ financial risk and capital efficiency. However, due to the confusion between the concept of “asset” and “capital”, banks generally miscalculate the leverage, yield and short-term solvency of micro enterprises(leverage series misestimate), which affects the efficiency of credit allocation and the effect of policy tools.This paper expands the research on the influencing factors of credit resource mismatch from institutional factors to information factors(defects in the design of credit decision indicators), which provides a new solution to solve the problem of credit resource mismatch. The distortion of financial information by leverage series misestimate leads banks to deviate from the capital nature of “seeking profits to avoid risks” and the internal logic of capital movement. The correction indexes designed based on the concept of “capital” correct the financial information and clearly expose the two kinds of credit resource mismatches caused by the misleading of leverage series misestimate: Insufficient allocation of credit resources is generated for such enterprises with overrated leverage, underrated yield and underrated short-term solvency, and excessive allocation of credit resources is generated for such enterprises with overrated short-term solvency. Under the impact of leverage series misestimate, insufficient allocation of credit resources generally exists in enterprises with “low credit default risk”(low “corrected leverage”, high “corrected yield” and strong “corrected short-term solvency”), and excessive allocation of credit resources generally exists in enterprises with “high corrected default risk”(high “corrected leverage”, low “corrected yields” and weak “corrected short-term solvency”).Further study shows that the relationship between leverage series misestimate and credit resource mismatch has regional heterogeneity and industry heterogeneity. In the eastern area, where the supply chain is better developed and the capital management level is higher, the relationship between the two is closer. From the aspect of industry, this relationship is closer in technology-intensive industries and competitive industries.The main contributions of this paper are as follows: Firstly, it expands the research on the influencing factors of credit resource mismatch and points out that financial index validity is an important factor of them.By constructing the leverage series misestimate index system, it comprehensively expounds the design defects of traditional financial index system caused by the confusion of “asset” and “capital”. Based on the revised indicators, it identifies enterprises with “low credit risk” and “high credit risk”, reveals the inverse relationship between the level of credit risk and the scale of credit resources, and explores the deep reasons for the phenomenon of “bad money driving out good” in the process of credit resource allocation. Secondly, by discussing the relationship between the different types of leverage series misestimate and the different direction of credit resource mismatch, it explores the specific areas of “reducing leverage” “stabilizing leverage” and“increasing leverage”, and analyzes the key points of risk prevention and control in structural leverage governance. Thirdly, through the heterogeneity analysis of regions and industries, it further identifies the key regions and industries of credit resource mismatch caused by leverage series misestimate, explores the regional positioning and industry guidance of structural leverage governance, and guides the optimization of regional allocation of credit resources through the correction of leverage series misestimate, which is conducive to driving the release of the vitality of emerging factors and easing the financing constraints of competitive industries.