收益流风险视角下双渠道供应链的囚徒困境问题分析

The Prisoner’s Dilemma of Dual-channel Supply Chain under the Perspective of Income Stream Risk

双渠道模式加剧了制造商和零售商之间的渠道冲突,而整体利润与个体利益的不一致导致了供应链的“囚徒困境”。考虑到消费者的渠道偏好以及厂商风险偏好对供应链生产决策的影响,运用收益流风险构造多阶段供应链效用函数,比较分析制造商和零售商之间的四种竞合策略组合对其利润以及效用水平的影响,进而研究制造商与零售商在收益流风险视角下对竞合策略的选择问题。结果表明:供应链的利润与消费者的渠道偏好呈U型关系,消费者对渠道不敏感时,供应链利润达到最低水平;比较四种策略选择发现,集中决策情境下供应链整体利润达到最优,而出于自利动机,制造商与零售商会选择单独定价作为占优策略,导致分散决策成为供应链“囚徒困境”中的纳什均衡解;从收益流风险视角发现,供应链的效用水平与厂商的风险偏好态度呈负相关关系,基于动态序贯的策略选择能够有效阻止决策者的短视行为,多期的策略选择中双方合作集中决策为供应链最优的均衡策略。基于以上分析结果,提出制造商提高线上渠道服务水平、零售商搭建与制造商的合作模式、政府健全外部市场信用评级制度,从收益流风险视角考量供应链管理的长期效用水平,以期为提高供应链合作提供有益参考。

With the rapid development of e-commerce technology and the change of consumers’ shopping concepts,more and more manufacturers break through the original single traditional sales channel and gain greater market competitiveness by opening up electronic direct sales channels.However,the existence of dual channels has intensified the competition between manufacturers and retailers,leading to the coexistence of horizontal and vertical competition in the supply chain.Although existing studies have shown that the centralized decision-making between manufacturers and retailers is the optimal equilibrium solution.For self-interested motives,both will choose to cut prices separately to increase market share,i.e.,to take non-cooperation as the dominant strategy,which leads to non-cooperative decentralized decision-making as the Nash equilibrium solution in the prisoner’s dilemma of the supply chain.Therefore,it is necessary to study the influence mechanism of different strategic combinations of supply chain participants on their utility level and production decision-making,so as to provide reference for coordinated supply chain management.Considering the influence of consumers’ channel preferences and vendors’ risk preferences on supply chain strategy decisions,a multi-stage supply chain utility function is constructed via income stream risk.Through the introduction of Tit for Tat strategy based on past experience,the impact of the four combinations of cooperation and competition strategies between manufacturers and retailers on their profit and utility levels,and further studies the choices of manufacturers and retailers for competition and cooperation in the perspective of income stream risk.Firstly,the profit of the supply chain has a U-shaped relationship with the channel preference of consumers.When consumers are not sensitive to channels,supply chain profits reach the lowest level.Secondly,a comparison of the four strategies shows that the overall profit of the supply chain reaches the best under centralized decision-making.For self-interest,manufacturers and retailers choose defect as the dominant strategy,which leads to decentralized decision-making becoming the Nash equilibrium solution in the prisoner’s dilemma of supply chain.Finally,from the perspective of income flow risk,it is found that the utility level of supply chain is negatively related to the risk preference attitude of manufacturers and retailers.The strategy selection based on dynamic sequential can effectively prevent short-sighted behavior of decision makers,and the cooperation strategy between the two parties is the optimal equilibrium strategy in the multi-period strategy selection.Based on the above analyses,it is proposed to improve the service level of online channels,build cooperation models between manufacturers and retails,improve the external market credit rating system,and consider long-term utility level of supply chain management from the perspective of income stream risk.It is expected that this research can provide some meaningful reference for improving supply chain cooperation and avoid the prisoner’s dilemma of dual-channel supply chain.