人民币在“一带一路”区域的货币锚效应的实证研究

The Empirical Study on the Monetary Anchoring Effect of RMB in the Belt and Road Region

选取2013-2017年“一带一路”沿线25个国家的月度数据,以贸易联系度、出口贸易竞争力、通货膨胀水平差异性以及金融市场对外开放程度为解释变量,通过建立面板数据模型来研究人民币在“一带一路”货币圈中的锚效应。实证结果表明:国家间的贸易联系程度、通货膨胀水平相似性以及金融市场开放度将有助于加强人民币的锚效应,而我国同沿线国家的出口竞争力之间的差额不利于人民币锚效应的加强。本文对加强人民币货币锚效应提出相应的对策:扩大内需,改善出口企业贸易结构;创新产品技术,调整市场营销策略;调整工资结构,防范通货膨胀;有序推进资本项目开放,加速我国金融自由化改革。

Based on the monthly data of 25 countries along the Belt and Road Initiative from 2013 to 2017,taking the degree of trade connection,the competitiveness of export trade,the difference of inflation level and the degree of financial market opening to the outside world as explanatory variables,this paper studies the anchoring effect of RMB in the Belt and Road Initiative monetary circle by establishing panel data model.The empirical results show that the degree of trade links between countries,the difference of inflation level and the openness of financial market will help to strengthen the anchoring effect of RMB,while the difference between China and the countries along the route is not conducive to the strengthening of RMB anchoring effect,and puts forward the corresponding countermeasures:expanding domestic demand,improving the trade structure of export enterprises,innovating product technology and adjusting marketing strategy.We will adjust the wage structure,prevent inflation,promote the opening up of data projects,and speed up the reform of China’s financial liberalization.