美元国际货币网络效应之基:石油美元体系评述

Basis of the U.S.dollar's international monetary network effect:a review of the petrodollar system

国际货币的网络效应是一国货币获得国际货币地位并得以维系的基础,网络效应从理论上解释了现行国际货币体系,但是当前网络效应产生的根本原因阐释仍然缺如。以石油美元为切入点,梳理石油美元体系形成的历史背景和过程,分析美国是如何通过对石油生产的控制,配合国内深度发达的金融市场,使得美元全面主导石油的计价权、定价权、交易媒介、结算货币、风险管理、富余资金投资等多个领域,从而形成了后布雷顿森林体系时期美元国际货币网络效应的基础;进一步分析了石油美元体系潜在的脆弱性、近期涌现的石油贸易去美元化现象及其对人民币国际化的启示。研究认为,鉴于目前以石油美元体系等为基础所形成的网络效应,以美元为主导的现行国际金融体系在未来较长一段时间内仍将持续;人民币国际化过程中应发展以人民币计价的原油期货等大宗商品衍生品市场,促进大宗商品计价、定价与贸易结算等人民币化,培育人民币使用的网络效应。

The network effect of international currencies is the basis for a country's currency to gain and sustain international monetary status.However,while the network effect is a good theoretical explanation of the current international monetary system,it does not explain the underlying causes of the formation of the current network effect.Taking the petrodollar as the specific case,this paper summarizes the historical background and process of the formation of the petrodollar system,and analyzes how the U.S.dollar,through the control of oil production and deeply developed domestic financial market,has thoroughly dominated oil price denomination,pricing,medium of exchange,settlement,risk management,investment of surplus funds and other fields of crude oil,thus forming the basis of the international monetary network effect of the U.S.dollar in the post-Bretton Woods system.The paper then further analyzes the potential vulnerability of the petrodollar system,the emergence of the phenomenon of de-dollarization of oil trade in recent years,and its inspiration and reference to the internationalization of the Chinese RMB.The analysis suggests that,the current international financial system dominated by the U.S.dollar will continue for a long time in the future,given the network effect developed on the basis of the petrodollar system at present.In the process of RMB internationalization,commodity derivatives markets such as crude oil futures denominated in RMB should be developed to promote the RMBization of commodity pricing,pricing and trade settlement,in order to foster the network effect of the use of RMB.