基于贝叶斯推断的健康老年抚养比测度

Measurement and Analysis of Healthy Elderly Dependency Ratio Based on Bayesian Inference

老年抚养比能够衡量人口老龄化程度,但它并不包含健康和预期剩余寿命等信息,因而无法识别工作人口对不健康老年人口的负担程度,从而影响健康老龄化相关公共政策的制定。基于此,文章将老年抚养比分解为健康和不健康老年抚养比,利用贝叶斯推断构建基于发病率、死亡率等参数的数理模型,并对2020—2050年中国健康老年抚养比进行了实证测量及国际比较。实证结果表明:目前老年抚养比为18.4%,而健康和不健康老年抚养比分别为8.1%和10.3%,显著高于欧美和日本等发达国家,这意味着中国养老和医疗负担较重;2030年以后健康老年抚养比将逐步超过不健康老年抚养比,养老和医疗负担将有所缓和。

The elderly dependency ratio can be a measure of population ageing,but it does not include the information of health and remaining life expectancies.Therefore,it is impossible to identify the burden of the working population on the unhealthy old-age population,thus affecting the formulation of public policies related to the healthy elderly.Accordingly,this paper decomposes the old-age dependency ratio into the healthy and unhealthy old-age dependency ratio,builds a mathematical model based on the morbidity and mortality and other parameters by using Bayesian inference,and also makes an empirical measurement and international comparison on the healthy old-age dependency ratio in China from 2020 to 2050.The empirical results are as the follows:The current old-age dependency ratio is 18.4%,while the healthy and unhealthy old-age dependency ratio is 8.1%and 10.3%,respectively.It is significantly higher than developed countries such as Europe,America and Japan,which means that China has a heavy burden of pension and medical care.After 2030,the healthy old-age dependency ratio will gradually exceed the unhealthy old-age dependency ratio,and the burden of old-age care and medical care will somewhat ease.