我国制造业高质量发展周期测度

Measurement on High-quality Development Cycle of China’s Manufacturing Industry

文章从制造业高质量发展的基本内涵出发,构建了优规模、优结构、高效率、高效益的四维评价指标体系;运用合成指数法得到我国制造业高质量发展一致景气指数,并分析其波动性和周期性。结果显示:我国制造业高质量发展的周期性波动变化特征主要体现在波动持续的时间、波动幅度与离散度三个层面;三个层面中包含的波动高度、深度、频率及振幅等指数呈现周期性波动变化的特征;观测期初期表现为陡升陡降的变化态势,中后期波动性变化趋于稳定,整体表现出非对称性;虽然制造业高质量发展一致景气指数在短期内受到一定影响,但长期发展趋于稳定。

Based on the basic connotation of high-quality development of manufacturing industry,this paper constructs an evaluation index system from four dimensions of excellent scale,excellent structure,high efficiency and high benefit,then uses the method of synthetic index to obtain the consistent prosperity index of high-quality development of China’s manufacturing industry,and finally analyzes its volatility and periodicity.The results go as below:The characteristics of cyclical fluctuation in the high-quality development of China’s manufacturing industry are mainly reflected in three levels:the duration of fluctuation,fluctuation range and dispersion.The fluctuation height,depth,frequency and amplitude in the three levels show the characteristics of periodic fluctuation.At the beginning of the observation period,the variation trend is steep rise and steep fall,and the fluctuation changes tend to be stable in the middle and late period,showing the overall asymmetry.Although the consistent prosperity index of high-quality development of manufacturing industry has been affected in the short term,the long-term development tends to be stable.