RCEP跨境数据流动规则对中国经济影响的模拟

Simulation of the Impact of RCEP Cross-border Data Flow Rules on China’s Economy

党的二十大报告指出,要“扩大面向全球的高标准自由贸易区网络。”近年来,中国签署高标准自由贸易协定的步伐不断加快,RCEP成为中国首个纳入“跨境信息传输”和“计算设施位置”条款的RTA,标志着中国在参与RTA跨境数据流动规则制定上取得重要进展。本文构建了一个由31个国家/地区和31个部门组成的全球一般均衡模型,从贸易成本和生产效率两个渠道量化了RCEP跨境数据流动规则生效对全球经济的冲击。研究发现:RCEP跨境数据流动规则生效后,中国的GDP、出口和进口分别变动0.26%、-0.39%和0.34%,总体有助于扩大进口和促进贸易平衡发展,通过生产效率渠道的影响幅度明显大于贸易成本渠道;对服务业产出提升幅度大于制造业;对数据强度较高的制造业产出扩张效应明显,带来对数据强度较低制造业产出的挤出效应;有助于继续加深中国与RCEP伙伴间的贸易联系,推动形成更紧密的东亚区域产业链体系;中国未来加入CPTPP将进一步降低跨境数据流动政策的不确定性,与RCEP生效前相比,对GDP、出口和进口的影响幅度为仅加入RCEP情形下的两倍左右。本文首次量化测算中国参与巨型协定跨境数据流动规则的经济影响,为中国未来参与更高标准的RTA跨境数据流动规则提供政策参考。

In recent years, the U.S., Japan, and the EU are accelerating the construction of an international high-standard cross-border data flow rules system at the regional trade agreement(RTA) level, and China has also accelerated the pace of cross-border data flow rules development. In November 2020, the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP) marked a breakthrough in China’s participation in the development of cross-border data flow rules in RTAs, making RCEP the first RTA signed by China that includes provisions on “cross-border information transfer” and “location of computing facilities.” The easing of restrictions on cross-border data flows brought about by the RCEP will not only reduce trade costs by lowering a country’s market access barriers related to data flows(inter-border channel) but also unleash the full impact of data as a factor of production on domestic output, innovation, and productivity by lowering data input costs(post-border channel). This study constructs a global general equilibrium model consisting of 31 countries/regions and 31 sectors and simulates the impact of RCEP cross-border data flow rules on China’s economy by quantifying the impact of RCEP on the regulatory environment of cross-border data flow of member parties and constructing the impact channels of rule changes on the GTAP model in two dimensions of trade costs and production efficiency. It is found that China’s GDP, exports, and imports will change by 0.255%,-0.387%, and 0.337%, respectively, after the RCEP cross-border data flow rules come into effect, which would help to expand imports and promote balanced trade development. Further, the magnitude of the impact through the production efficiency channel is significantly larger than that of the trade costs channel;the magnitude of the output enhancement is larger for the service sector than for the manufacturing sector;the expansion effect on the output of manufacturing industries with higher data intensity is obvious, bringing about a crowding-out effect on the output of manufacturing industries with lower data intensity. This will help to continue to deepen trade ties between China and RCEP partners and promote the formation of a closer regional industrial chain system in East Asia. China’s accession to the CPTPP will further reduce the uncertainty of cross-border data flow policies, and the impact on GDP, exports, and imports will be about twice as large as that under the RCEP-only scenario compared with the pre-RCEP scenario.Based on the above research findings, this study puts forward the following policy recommendations. First, the construction of domestic laws and regulations matching the RCEP cross-border data flow rules should be accelerated. It is recommended that based on the supreme laws of the People’s Republic of China, such as the Cybersecurity Law of the PRC, the Data Security Law of the PRC, and the Personal Information Protection Law of the PRC, matching laws and regulations on cross-border data flow and cross-border flow of personal information should be expedited. Second, the construction of a coordination mechanism between China and RCEP members under the framework of cross-border data flow rules should be actively promoted, and China should further promote the formation of a regulatory coordination mechanism for cross-border data flows among the 15 members under the RCEP framework to form an operable implementation plan. Third, China should introduce a combined policy system to promote the digital transformation of its manufacturing industry and further improve the digitalization level and data intensity of its manufacturing industry, thus enhancing the spillover effect of RCEP cross-border data flow rules on Chinese enterprises. Fourth, in the process of promoting the implementation of the RCEP cross-border data flow rules, China should actively play the role of free trade ports, free trade test zones, and other institutional open platforms as a testing ground.