多主体协同视域下短视频网络舆情导控机理及因果机制研究

Research on the Guidance and Control Mechanism and Causal Mechanism of Short Video Network Public Opinion under Multi-agent Collaboration

[目的/意义]短视频的日益普及与应用给网民的沟通交流带来便利的同时也使得短视频网络舆情甚嚣尘上,给网络舆情导控工作带来了新的挑战。[方法/过程]在对短视频网络舆情相关主体及其影响因素分析的基础上,运用Vensim PLE软件构建包含网民、短视频平台和政府3个子系统的系统动力学模型,并结合“郑州7·20特大暴雨灾害事件”进行仿真分析,进而采用过程追踪法对短视频网络舆情导控的因果机制进行分析,构建理论分析模型。[结果/结论]结果发现,短视频网络舆情受导控需求、主体参与和协同机制的共同影响,可分别从制定导控预案、强化融媒体矩阵建设、加强主体间的有效协同等方面实现短视频网络舆情的科学导控。

[Purpose/Significance]The increasing popularity and application of short videos have brought convenience to the communication of netizens,but also led to the generation of short video network public opinion,which has brought new challenges to the work of network public opinion guidance and control.[Method/Process]Based on the analysis of relevant subjects and influencing factors of short video network public opinion,Vensim PLE software was used to construct a system dynamics model including three subsystems of netizens,short video platform and government,and combined with“Zhengzhou 7·20 Extraordinary rainstorm disaster event”,the model was simulated and analyzed,and the process tracking method was used to analyze the causal mechanism of short video network public opinion guidance and control,and to build a theoretical analysis model.[Result/Conclusion]The results show that short video network public opinion is jointly affected by the guidance and control needs,subject participation and coordination mechanism,which can be effectively guided from the aspects of formulating guidance and control plans,strengthening the construction of convergent media matrix,and strengthening effective coordination between subjects.Control short video network public opinion.