宽松货币政策是否真的会推高宏观杠杆率

Could Expansionary Monetary Policy Really Push Macro Leverage Up?

通常认为,宽松货币政策会通过增加实体部门的债务水平而推高宏观杠杆率。然而,这一看法忽视了其对总需求的潜在影响。为此,本文首先提取明确的叙事信息对中国的货币政策冲击进行识别,分析结果表明,宽松货币政策本身并不是样本期内宏观杠杆率上升的主要原因,其对总需求的刺激效应强于对实际债务的推升作用。其次,通过对企业数据的分析发现,使用债务营收比度量企业杠杆率不仅有助于剖析货币政策导致杠杆率变动的微观机制,而且能够有效解释“宏微观杠杆率背离之谜”。最后,本文基于一个包含企业融资决策的分析框架,推导出宽松货币政策有助于稳定杠杆率的充分必要条件,并确认了其在样本期内的存在性。

Expansionary monetary policy is generally believed to be the source of greater leverage in an economy.However,the stimulus effect of the monetary policy has been ignored from this perspective.This paper identifies monetary policy shocks based on the extraction of clear narrative information,demonstrating that expansionary monetary policy is not the primary reason for the increase in the macro leverage ratio in the sample period.The stimulus effect of expansionary monetary policy on aggregate demand turns out to be stronger than its driving effect on real debt.Through analysis of corporate data,it is found that the debt-to-revenue ratio is not only a better measure of the corporate leverage level,but it also effectively explains the puzzle of the divergence between leverage ratios at the macro and micro levels.Finally,we incorporate the firm financing problem into a simple model and derive the sufficient and necessary condition under which the expansionary monetary policy is helpful to stabilize the leverage ratio.