中国草畜生产的时空匹配格局及驱动机制

Spatiotemporal Matching Pattern and Driving Mechanism Between Forage and Livestock Productions in China

探究饲草种植与牲畜养殖时空匹配度及演变机制是优化草畜结合的重要基础,是实现草畜业提质增效的关键抓手。文章基于草业系统耦合理论构建草畜生产系统分析框架,阐释草畜生产匹配的动态演变内涵并依此确定指标体系,再利用改进耦合协调、四种空间权重下的计量模型测度中国2001—2019年草畜生产时空匹配格局及其驱动效应。结果表明:饲草种植系统远滞后于牲畜养殖系统,草畜生产匹配度上升缓慢,整体呈现西北高东南低的分布格局。草畜生产匹配的空间相关性不断增强,冷热点集聚趋势逐渐扩散。草畜生产匹配度在养殖业的需求引导、运输成本的理性约束、草地资源的优势带动、城镇化的消费激励、劳动力的流动传导,以及技术红利与政策支持等多因素协同驱动下不断发展。不同省份间存在示范扩散、集聚竞争等空间关联效应使得驱动因素的溢出效应显著。

Studying the spatiotemporal matching degree and evolution mechanism between forage planting and livestock breeding is an important basis for optimizing their combination,and is the key to improve the quality and efficiency of the grass and livestock industries. Based on the system coupling theory of grass industry, this paper constructs the analysis framework of forage and livestock production system,explains the dynamic evolution connotation of forage and livestock production matching to establish the index system. By the means of the methods of the improving coupling coordination and spatial measurement model, it measures the spatial-temporal matching pattern and its driving effects of forage and livestock productions in China from 2001 to 2019. The results showed that: 1) The forage planting system was far behind the livestock breeding system,the matching degree of forage and livestock productions increased slowly,and the overall distribution pattern presented the uneven distribution which was high in the northwest and low in the southeast. 2) The spatial correlation of forage-livestock production matching had been continuously enhanced, the trend of hot and cold agglomeration had gradually spread. 3) The matching degree between forage planting and livestock production was continuously developed under the coordinated drive of multiple factors, such as the demand guidance of the livestock industry,the rational constraint of transportation cost,the advantage of grassland resources,the consumption incentive of urbanization,the labor flow,the technological dividend and the policy support. 4) There are spatial correlation effects such as demonstration diffusion and agglomeration competition among different provinces,which make the spillover effect of driving factors significant.